Switch cell carriers as often as you'd like, without changing coordinates
This year, the holidays could mark the end of millions of relationships - between individuals and their cell phone companies. As of November 24, after years of delay, new FCC rules require telcos to let customers keep their mobile numbers when they switch wireless providers. Local telephone number portability is a fundamental change in the cell phone business. Customers can chase lower rates and better service without reprinting business cards or sending yet another "change of coordinates" email. Get ready to hop promiscuously from carrier to carrier and still maintain a committed relationship with 10 little digits. Number portability means never having to say you're sorry.
The backstory: Congress first raised the notion of number portability - for landlines - while debating the 1996 Telecommunications Act. Soon after, the FCC thought it might spur competition in the wireless industry. Lobbyists fought it, arguing that rivalry among firms was already strong - 30 percent of mobile phone customers jump carriers annually and, they said, service plan pricing declined 80 percent in the previous eight years. After endless squabbling and a few rounds in court, the industry lost and has since spent months scrambling to upgrade systems and to train workers - at a cost upwards of $1 billion.
The tech: The trick is handing off the administration of specific numbers from one carrier to another. Each cell phone handset transmits a signal that identifies it to nearby antennas: "I respond to this number, and I belong to this network." Farther up the org chart, the companies' computers figure out whom to bill when a particular number shows activity. For a number to port, your new phone has to be encoded with the old number but self-identify as part of a different network. At least, that's the theory. As of October, none of the carriers had run a joint test. Some were predicting technological hiccups - long hold times for customer service, calls that won't connect, billing errors, and the like. But since most carriers have resisted portability from the start (Verizon dropped its opposition this summer), their worries are somewhat suspect.
The outcome: As many as 8.7 million of the country's 149 million cell customers may switch carriers immediately - like, finger-poised-over-redial immediately. Some analysts speculate that in the months after the shift, the industry's churn rate might spike to 50 percent. In the long term, business customers - 40 percent of the total base - may be more likely to play the field, especially if they believe changing carriers will result in fewer dropped calls and less static. On the industry side, wireless firms won't reveal their marketing plans, but expect some desperation in the face of all these potential defections ("Can you hear me now? Please?"). A price war like the long-distance battle of the 1990s is possible, but companies might just hold prices steady - instead rolling out offers for, say, a free month of service or a new phone in return for signing a long-term contract. Even with portable numbers, a contract is still a contract and, as the saying goes, early termination fees will apply.
The future: While it's unlikely that newborns will be issued mobile numbers along with their Social Security cards, someday you could have a single number that follows you for a lifetime. Meanwhile, expect more wireline-to-wireless transfers, "cutting the cord" on landlines - because number portability is supposed to cover those switcheroos (and vice versa), too. Years from now, you might remember that phone plugged into the wall with the fondness reserved for your first love - the one you eventually dumped.
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