As dissatisfied as millions of Americans claim to be with their cell-phone providers, carriers did not get an overwhelming tide of requests Monday from customers jumping on their first opportunity to switch services without changing phone numbers.
Instead, phone retailers and industry analysts said, most customers are biding their time following the introduction this week of cell-phone number portability in 100 urban areas.
"I don't think there's a huge portion of consumers biting at the bit to switch on day one," said Seamus McAteer, an analyst at Zelos Group. He expects the volume to pick up significantly in January, when people are finished with holiday shopping and have more time to devote to personal errands like porting cell phones.
In the next year, analysts expect millions of cell-phone users to switch carriers as a result of the new local number-portability rules. The directive, backed by the Federal Communications Commission at the urging of consumer advocacy groups, essentially allows customers to "own" their mobile-phone numbers, enabling them to change providers in the same local area without altering their number.
While portability is only available now in the largest urban areas, mobile carriers are required to extend the service nationwide in six months. The FCC is also extending portability to landline phones, allowing customers who go all-mobile to transfer their home number to a cell phone.
So far, most retailers who sell mobile phones and service plans aren't seeing a flood of new business. In a random sample of about a dozen stores in the New York and San Francisco areas, most reported that business is steady, but not unusually busy. Only two Verizon outlets in New York warned of number-transfer backups and long wait times for sales reps.
At one Radio Shack in Palo Alto, California, which sells equipment and service for Sprint PCS and Verizon, lunch-time business remained relatively sluggish, with most customers looking for items other than cell phones. But John Fox, a sales associate, doesn't think the slow pace will continue for long.
"We're expecting this is going to be as big as when digital cellular phone service was first introduced," he said, as a co-worker at an adjacent cash register attempted, with some delay, to process the first cell-phone transfer of the day.
According to Fox, a typical number port takes anywhere from three to 72 hours. While customers wait for the service transfer to complete, they can make outgoing calls on their new phone and receive incoming calls on their old one.
With the portability rules in effect for only one day, it's still unclear which carriers will emerge as the big winners and losers in the great cell-phone-switching fest. In a recent report, analysts at InStat/MDR predicted that Verizon Wireless would hold up best because it has the highest ratings for customer satisfaction among the largest carriers.
Analysts at InStat/MDR said carriers with the lowest satisfaction ratings -- including Altel, Cingular and Sprint -- face the greatest potential loss of customers as a result of number portability.
But mobile-phone companies are taking matters into their own hands, too, offering extra calling time, free phones and other incentives to attract new customers and keep existing ones from switching.
Sprint PCS, for example, recently moved back the start time for its free evening calling period to 7 p.m. Earlier this year, calls under the same plan were not free until after 9 p.m.
AT&T Wireless, meanwhile, is offering a free phone every 12 months, with a mail-in rebate, to customers who start or renew a two-year service agreement. And Cingular, a joint venture of BellSouth and SBC Communications, is offering 500 minutes that are usable anytime for new customers.
To make the transfers faster and less prone to glitches, retailers and service providers are advising customers to verify their numbers by bringing in a bill from their current provider. Carriers are also warning customers not to cancel their old service plans before signing up for a new one if they want to keep the same number.
Jan-Jost Rueb, founder of NumberPortabililty.com, which provides advice on switching carriers, said he received messages from several mobile-phone customers who successfully transferred their numbers to a new provider on Monday.
A few people also complained of difficulties, and Rueb expects that number to rise.
"Definitely there are going to be glitches and people losing their phone numbers and people getting double-billed," he said, drawing a page from his experience living in Europe when mobile-phone providers there began offering number portability.
Rueb advises people who are thinking of changing carriers to wait at least a few days to make sure number-processing systems are working properly. He also warns potential switchers not to get too excited about the new incentives mobile-phone companies are piling on in hopes of attracting their business.
"Don't be lured by a good plan," he said. "The price war is just going to start."
