SAN FRANCISCO -- The print industry is hobbling but it is far from dead, a Rochester Institute of Technology professor told a group of media publishers at the Seybold conference on Monday.
"In the late 1970s and 1980s, 'paperless office' and 'office automation' were overused buzzwords," said Frank J. Romano, a professor at the RIT School of Print Media and the Seybold conference chairman. "In 1983, a company called Wang Labs had introduced a system that could scan images and store them in memory. They predicted paperless offices. Today, offices are 'Wang-less.'"
That's not to say paper-oriented printers and publishers shouldn't take proactive measures to ensure their survival, which is increasingly coming into question, Romano said.
While Wang may have wrongly predicted the demise of paper in offices, all studies and forecasts show the world is poised to use significantly less paper and much more digital media than ever before, Romano said. He dared his audience to find offices that still rely on fax machines, for example. Most likely, offices are on some kind of network and workers use e-mail or an intranet to communicate, he said. More people than ever are paying bills online, eliminating the need for checks and other stationery. Even bulk mail has reared its ugly head as junk e-mail or "spam."
There also is what Romano dubbed the "digital generation," today's youth who is constantly online and hardly ever picks up a newspaper. Most every major newspaper and magazine in the country has an online edition. And some of these newspapers, such as the San Francisco Chronicle, are looking at other ways to distribute news electronically.
"This generation of kids watches and listens more than they read," Romano said. "Look at what they are doing with the cell phone. Rather than type a message, they record a video of the message and send it."
But what will most strongly drive the workplace to "less paper" -- not completely "paperless," Romano quickly added -- are wireless devices. As post offices raise the price of postage to make up for the decline in mail, offices will mainly conduct business using e-mail, conference calls and handheld devices that they will lend to their workers. This business practice, in turn, will drive down the prices for handheld computers.
By 2015, a laptop will cost a mere $300, compared with $1,500 today, Romano said. A tablet PC in 12 years will cost $40, a PDA $20, an electronic book reader $30, a pocket TV $10, and a combination Web-enabled cell phone and e-book reader $70. Even though these gadgets exist today, they cost up to 50 times more, as is the case with the tablet PC, for example.
"I predict that someday Time magazine will give you a PDA for free, in exchange for a four-year subscription," Romano said. "That way you can view it electronically."
Not to mention that the company would save on printing and shipping costs, he said.
A Time spokeswoman would not comment on Romano's talk. She denied that print magazines were in trouble, although she quickly added, "Time itself is actively engaged in electronic media."
Offering digital media services is one way for traditional publishers and printers to survive an increasingly paperless world, said Keith Davidson of consulting firm Davidson Communications. Another way is to understand the role of documents in all aspects of office life and to target services accordingly.
Romano echoed Davidson, saying there is still room for print advertising, even though it is declining along with newspaper readers. People are more likely to view bulk mail -- even if it's dangling over the trash can -- than spam, which can easily be filtered, he said.
Still, that doesn't mean print publishers should ignore digital media altogether.
"It's going to happen," Romano said. "It doesn't mean that the industry dies. It means it reconfigures itself."
