A barrage of copyright-infringement lawsuits from the recording industry may have succeeded this week in striking fear in the hearts of heavy file sharers.
But opponents of the Recording Industry Association of America's approach say its heavy-handed tactics are unlikely to prove effective over the long run. Rather than give up on file trading, they say, fans probably will either seek more-anonymous ways to swap music or collect tracks from artists not affiliated with the RIAA.
"For the 60 million Americans who are using file-trading services right now, even if they get scared away briefly, I don't think it will be long before they find a less-traceable way of exchanging music," said Wendy Seltzer, staff attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, which offers legal aid to people targeted in RIAA suits.
Seltzer's comments come on the heels of a Monday announcement by the trade group, which represents the largest music labels, that it has filed suits against 261 people it claims illegally distributed music files using peer-to-peer networks. The suits, filed in courts around the country, targeted traders who had on average posted more than 1,000 songs to file-trading networks.
The RIAA blames file traders for contributing to declines in U.S. sales of new CDs over the past three years. While industry-sanctioned download sites, such as iTunes and BuyMusic.com, may be picking up some sales, they have not attracted anything close to the volume of users on free file-trading networks like Kazaa.
But as the industry's courtroom offensive takes shape, some music industry analysts and file-trading fans question whether the strategy will do much to further the RIAA's goal of boosting legitimate music sales.
"If you're trying to instill fear, you may have success. But if you're trying to increase CD sales by getting people to stop sharing music, I don't think it will have any effect at all," said Brian Zisk, technologies director for the Future of Music Coalition.
Zisk believes some of the blame for falling CD sales lies not with file sharing but with the growth in popularity of other entertainments products, like DVDs, video games and even cell phones. As people spend more money on these items, they have fewer dollars left for CDs.
Michael Goodman, a Yankee Group analyst, said the recording industry's legal campaign appears to be having an effect on file traders, but is also stirring a consumer backlash.
According to Goodman, early indications show that the RIAA's crackdown has resulted in a decline in peer-to-peer file trading. In mid-June, simultaneous users for Fastrack (the network that supports Kazaa and Grokster) averaged about 4.5 million per day at its peak. By late August, the number had dropped to about 3.5 million users. While vacations may have been a factor, the majority of this decline is likely because of the threat of a lawsuit from the RIAA, he wrote.
Notably, however, the decline in CD sales accelerated during the period of reduced peer-to-peer file trading. On June 15, the day the RIAA launched a subpoena campaign against file traders, CD sales were down 6.1 percent year to date. In the seven weeks since launching the subpoena campaign, the decline in CD sales has accelerated 54 percent.
"Although a seven-week period is not conclusive, it should give the recording industry pause," he wrote.
And while CD sales are down, traffic to the Boycott-RIAA website is up. The site, which asks people to buy music from artists not affiliated with the RIAA, saw a surge in visitors following the RIAA's latest announcement, said the site's founder, Bill Evans.
That said, the RIAA has reported some success with its initial subpoena campaign.
In a Monday conference call, RIAA president Cary Sherman said a "handful" of people who were alerted that their information was subpoenaed had approached the music group and are in the process of settling their cases. The settlements in those cases will amount to about $3,000 each, which is probably a more lenient agreement than settlements to come, Sherman said.
The RIAA is also hoping to cut back on file trading through a new amnesty program, under which file traders agree to delete illegally obtained music files and promise not to do it again. In exchange, the RIAA will agree not to sue them.
So far, the RIAA's actions appear to have had the greatest impact on people who share files, rather than those who merely download other people's music. The RIAA has focused their lawsuits on file sharers because they have a greater presence on peer-to-peer networks and are easier to track down and identify.
But as the legal risk rises, file traders say they are reluctant to openly share their collections.
"Truth is, most people I know used to share everything. Now I can quite honestly say I don't know a single person who leaves sharing enabled," said one file trader, posting on the discussion site Slashdot.org.
"While it sucks for the network users, it just comes down to the fact that you would have to be friggin' insane to leave your computer sharing lots of files right now."
