New Frontiers

The Geography of Change

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At the start of the 20th century, 10 percent of the earth's population lived in cities. By the end of this decade, 50 percent will be urban dwellers. By 2015, there will be 58 metro areas with more than 5 million inhabitants each. Of these enclaves, 48 will be located outside the developed world. The lower-profile cities - those like Bombay, Lagos, and Dhaka - are flourishing the most, while traditional mega-metropolises, such as London, Osaka, and Detroit, are stagnating.

The world's population booms and busts every 60 minutes. Here's a look at the net population change per hour - from migrations, births, and deaths - for the fastest-growing and fastest-declining cities.

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AMO Pick up a newsstand copy of Wired magazine 11.06 for complete graphics of the numbers and trends shaping the Geography of Change.

NEW CONTENDERS
The United States, Europe, Japan, Canada, and Australia now form an inner circle of affluence and power. Due to their already high level of prosperity, these countries are finding it difficult to improve their clout and wealth. Meanwhile, less mighty but more populous contenders like China and India are closing the gap.

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AMO NEW ISLANDS
For decades, multinationals and smaller-scale scoundrels alike have turned to regulation-light island nations to set up tax havens. Extend the metaphor and you find new chains of so-called islands emerging to evade the long reach of government intrusion. Even as globalization fosters uniformity, these "developing" nations exploit differences.

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Think tanks are a hotbed of activity on the right. NEW POLITICS
Political change is fueled by fresh ideas. From the US Progressive movement of the 1900s to the Prague Spring to last decade's Gingrich revolution, new ways of thinking give birth to bold policies. These days, the freshest political ideas are coming from two very different sources: the activist left and the establishment right.

The left is fueled by a loose network of activist groups. Their preferred method: massive demonstrations, organized largely through the Net. On February 15, groups like Attac, People's Global Action, and United for Peace and Justice orchestrated F15, the first ever global protest against war in Iraq.

On the right, think tanks are a hotbed of activity. A new conservatism is flowing from a network of policy shops, where the free exchange of both business cards and ideas is transforming governments in America, Europe, and Asia.

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AMO NEW GLOBALISTS
The world's 30 largest multinationals (based on revenue) all hail from one of three places: the United States, Europe, or Japan. Only one - the US Postal Service - lacks a global presence, while the 30 biggest companies outside these areas (historically known as the Group of 7 nations) tend to serve local or regional markets closer to home. Nearly half of these multinationals outside of the G7 are mining their country's natural resources.

Last year, China showed the greatest growth on the list, with 10 companies, ranging from telcos to banks - a jump from only three firms in 1995, according to the Fortune Global 500. Each of these outfits is state-owned and dependent on the internal China market. But other companies on the list of emerging multinationals have found a way to go global - even firms that began by serving markets in their own respective countries. Take, for instance, some of the top companies in South Korea: LG International, Hyundai Corp., and Samsung Corp. All three are industrial conglomerates that started out as import/export trading divisions for their products but have since branched out. LG International processes and sells food and clothing; Samsung does construction; Hyundai is involved with the steel industry.

These maps chart 60 headquarters, roughly scaled to company revenues, and mark the various worldwide offices (Note: these maps are cropped and resized for online publication).

Pick up a newsstand copy of Wired magazine 11.06 for full-page graphics of the numbers and trends shaping the Geography of Change.