A new study shows the high-octane pace of broadband adoption in the United States could be shifting into a lower gear.
For the most part, America's most experienced Internet users already have signed up for home broadband service. And among the remaining Web junkies who haven't, the chief reason isn't a lack of interest, but the lack of availability in their neighborhoods.
Those were among the key findings in a report released this week by the Pew Internet & American Life Project which looked at trends in home broadband adoption. The study, conducted over a 12-month period ending in March, found that high-speed Internet adoption, although still steadily on the rise, is not growing at the torrid rates of the recent past.
"Really the most surprising finding was that over the past year there has been a shrinkage in the pool of experienced dialup Internet users who say they would like to get broadband," said John Horrigan, the chief researcher who prepared the report.
Currently, Horrigan estimates only about 13 percent of dialup Internet users seem ripe to migrate to broadband service. Typically, such users are experienced (online for six years or more), are active information gatherers and often post content online.
Once dialup users do move to broadband, researchers found, their online activities often change. In addition to participating in more bandwidth-intensive pursuits like downloading music, broadband subscribers were more apt to read news and stream content than their dialup counterparts.
The Pew study found that broadband adoption rose sharply over the 12-month research period, with the number of homes subscribing to high-speed Internet access growing by 50 percent.
Currently, researchers estimate that 31 percent of home Internet users have a high-speed connection at their residences. Overall, approximately 30 million people -- or 16 percent of all Americans -- log on at home with a broadband connection.
But while researchers touted the continued brisk growth of broadband as good news for providers, they noted that growth rates are down from the previous two years, when services were drawing a high volume of early adopters.
Lisa Strand, an analyst at Internet audience measurement firm Nielsen/NetRatings, said the slowing growth rate reflects the fact that many Net users still find dialup sufficient for their modest demands.
"A good number of Americans are still only going online for e-mail or to check the weather or for very basic activities," Strand said. She estimates that about one-fifth of individuals with Internet access at home don't even go online once in the course of a month.
To sustain growth, Horrigan said she believes broadband providers will have to focus on two areas: extending service to more neighborhoods and lowering prices.
Although most dialup Internet users are willing to pay more for the bells and whistles of an always-on broadband connection, current rates are too high for many.
"If the price drops 10 bucks a month, that might be the push for that kind of dialup user," Horrigan said.
Such views on pricing appear to be shared by others in the broadband business, in particular local phone companies that provide high-speed access through digital subscriber line, or DSL, technology.
In recent weeks, Verizon Communications and SBC Communications, the two largest U.S. local phone companies, have quietly rolled out new service plans that offer substantially lower rates for new subscribers or current customers who sign longer-term service contracts.
While the price cuts are partly a strategy to compete with cable broadband providers, the phone companies also expect the new plans will inspire more dialup users to purchase high-speed connections.
Still, the Pew study indicates that the remaining pool of dialup Internet users in broadband-equipped neighborhoods may be a hard sell.
When surveyors first asked experienced dialup Internet users last March whether they would like to switch to broadband at home, 53 percent said they would. But when asked again this year, only 43 percent of respondents said they would like a high-speed connection, indicating that early adopters already have jumped onto the broadband bandwagon.
"We suspect that there might be more moderate growth in the future due to the fact that there's a smaller number of people expressing interest in moving to broadband," Horrigan said.
