SEX IN SPACE AND OTHER THRILLS AHEAD
With optimism in short supply and conventional economic wisdom in tatters, ités go time for futurists-those lucky few who get paid to prophesize about hybrid cars and sex tourism in space. We picked a few with precog cred and asked the question of the day: When will the info economy rebound?
Peter Schwartz, cofounder and chair, GBN
Precog cred: In 1999, director Steven Spielberg hired him to envision the future for Minority Report; his ideas became the basis for the filmés look.
Right: In 1990, foresaw a low-intensity war between nation states and terrorist networks with access to technology.
Wrong: In 1994, didnét anticipate the Mexican financial meltdown despite having convened a focus group on Mexicoés future two weeks before.
Todayés forecast:-By 2010, hybrid cars will become the power-generation cornerstone of the world. When the car is plugged in at home, it will power the whole building. At work, your employer will use your car as a generator.é
The info economy will recover: Early next year.
Glen Hiemstra, founder, Futurist.com
Precog cred: A futurist since 1975, he now advises judges presiding over high tech cases.
Right: In 1997, foresaw a significant slowing in world population growth.
Wrong: In 1975, said that people would live on the moon within 20 years. In 1985, predicted the end of the automobile within 15 years.
Todayés forecast:-Due to the slowing of population growth, societies will begin demanding an increase in the birthrate within the next 20 years.é
The info economy will recover: In three years.
James Dator, director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies at the University of Hawaii
Precog cred: Founded the first future studies program in 1971.
Right: In 1970, foresaw a future dominated by email and handheld computers.
Wrong: In 1970, forecasted the disappearance of native Hawaiian culture.
Todayés forecast:-In 15 years, weéll have sex tourism in space, because thatés what will make money. Early adoption of technology has always been about sex. Space will be no different.é
The info economy will recover: In 10 to 30 years.
Gerald Celente, director, Trends Research Institute
Precog cred: Started prognosticating in 1980, and now spots 60 to 100 trends per year.
Right: In January 1987, said the stock market would crash within 12 months. In 1988, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union within two years.
Wrong: In 1998, said US economy would fall apart within 12 months.
Todayés forecast:-A disease or virus will kill significant portions of the global population. Donét think that things always get better. They can just get worse, and then youéll die.é
The info economy will recover: In 3 to 10 years. Maybe.
START
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