No, No, No to Nokia's Videophone

Nokia's new videophone may look good and feel good, but it isn't doing much for industry analysts, who predict the product will be a complete flop. By Elisa Batista.

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The world's largest cell-phone manufacturer thinks it may have outdone itself again, but Nokia's pre-launch bluster about its latest product isn't exactly wowing the experts.

In the first quarter of next year, Nokia plans to release a videophone with a funky, new, circular design for the number keypad.

The "3650" is sleek and includes a large color display. It has up to four hours of talk time, contains a Bluetooth chip that lets it sync wirelessly with other Bluetooth-enabled products and supports ring tones that are beyond the beeping noises typical of most of Nokia's phones.

The 3650, which Nokia says is targeted to early adopters in the 18-to-35 age group, will be available in dark blue, gray and yellow, although the user could purchase another blue, fuchsia or purple cover for it. It will sell for 450 euros ($442) without a carrier subsidy and will be sold in Europe, Asia, Africa and North and South Americas, said Nokia spokesman Keith Nowak.

Nowak said Nokia is banking on the success of multimedia messaging (MMS) over cell phones to sell the product.

"We think MMS is going to be a very popular method of communication," Nowak said.

Industry analysts are dubious.

While they say Nokia doesn't need this product to ensure its dominance in the market, they think it will flop.

"It's a sexy, cool, new device, but to be honest, any of these high-end devices are banking on people adopting very high-end services," said Forrester Research analyst Charles Golvin.

Golvin said the new product simply isn't cost-effective because of current pricing structures involving the wireless transmission of large data files.

Seamus McAteer, an analyst with research and consulting firm Zelos Group, questioned Nokia's decision to release the product next year, especially since competitor Sony Ericsson already sells a similar camera phone. The Sony Ericsson T68 also has Bluetooth.

McAteer said the fact the product won't be available for the 2002 holiday season doesn't help the 3650's chances. "The idea is to ignite the handset market, but it could mean that consumers will hold off" from buying the 3650, he said.

McAteer also wondered aloud if Nokia's premature announcement would ruin consumers' expectations. Many cellular phone systems, particularly in the United States aren't set up to support large amounts of video, he said.

"I wouldn't imagine that consumers would be awed by the picture quality that comes with a videophone," McAteer said.