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Harry Potter fans are eagerly awaiting the upcoming film debut to see if the young wizard can prevail against the evil Voldemort.
But can Harry also help revive a slumping licensing market?
The buzz surrounding the release of Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, which hits American theaters on Nov. 16, has sparked an insatiable demand for all things Potter.
But with a downturn in licensed merchandise, lower consumer spending and tough competition at the box office, there's some question of whether Potter's magical powers will be enough to propel holiday toy sales.
The film, which premiered in London on Nov. 4, could shatter box office records, toppling blockbuster Titanic's world record gross of $1.8 billion.
Online advanced ticket sales have already eclipsed previous records.
"As we go through the next couple weeks, there's a good chance that theaters will come as close to sellouts as they can online," said John Singh, spokesman for Fandango.com. "All bets are off in terms of how big this movie could be."
The first four Potter books sold 100 million copies in 46 languages. The film is expected to spur even more sales of related products, from action figures to trading cards.
"Retailers are hoping that Harry Potter merchandise will be one of the bright spots in holiday toy sales," said Diane Cardinale, public information manager for the Toy Industry Association.
"Over the past two months, a variety of new Harry Potter products have hit the market, and with interest in the movie being huge, these products can be expected to sell well," agreed Christina Charasse, senior account manager for The NPD Group.
"A lot of adults want to see the movie, not just kids, and that may well result in a lot of them buying Harry Potter toys and other products for the holidays."
Electronic Arts will release a widely anticipated Harry Potter computer game timed to hit the shelves in mid-November to coincide with the upcoming blockbuster.
Lego's Hogwarts Express train set and Mattel's Hogwarts School are among the top sellers.
The film could introduce Potter to a new audience of fans who haven't read the books.
"Once the movie opens to a broader audience, it will probably fuel a lot of interest in the actual toys," said Jeanne Meyer, vice president of corporate communications for Toysrus.com. "It's a marvelous and very rich set of stories with a lot of staying power."
But even if the film flops (which is highly unlikely), Potter's merchandise is likely to turn a profit.
"Sales of movie-related merchandise usually depend upon the success of the film itself; however, Harry Potter already has a built-in audience of faithful readers who will most likely purchase licensed items anyway," Cardinale said.
Almost half of the kids who plan to see the Harry Potter movie already own Harry Potter products, Charasse said. More than half of the kids who have read Harry Potter plan to get movie merchandise, and 60 percent of those who intend to see the movie also want related products. In addition, over 40 percent of the adults who plan on seeing the movie also intend to buy movie merchandise.
While the buzz surrounding the film is rampant, some insiders are leery about predicting how the merchandise will sell.
With few exceptions, there haven't been any big hits in new toys for the 2001 season to draw crowds yet, Cardinale said.
"It's too early to see whether it will be the runaway hit, but it will be a standout," Meyer said. "A lot remains to be seen, and you will see a lot happen in the next three weeks. A hit movie does not a hit toy make."
Warner Brothers must sustain interest for the seven Potter films based on the books that will be released over the next decade. The studio has limited marketing and merchandising to avoid over-hyping the brand.
"With the downturn in licensed merchandise of all types lately, all licensors are being especially careful about saturating the market and making sure the license and the product are a good match," Cardinale said.
Lower anticipated consumer spending this holiday season could also hamper toy sales.
"Anything that affects consumer confidence can in turn affect holiday sales," Cardinale said. "However, if a breakout, 'must-have' toy appears on the scene, then there most likely would be an upturn in holiday toy sales."
Despite economic and political uncertainty, most insiders think movie-driven merchandise will continue to fly off the shelves.
"Ask any economist, and they'll tell you that one industry that is as recession-proof as you can get is the toy business," Meyer said.
Potter must compete with two other holiday films targeting the same audience, Monsters, Inc. and Lord of the Rings.
Pixar's Monsters, Inc. reeled in over $63.5 million on its opening weekend, the highest-grossing opening for an animated release. The studio is also marketing merchandise through a slew of promotions, such as toy tie-ins with McDonald's.
But if online sales are any indication, Potter merchandise is trouncing the competition. There are already more than 8,000 Harry Potter items on eBay -- nearly four times as many as the runner-up, Lord of the Rings, which arrives in theaters Dec. 19.
So which movie-driven merchandise will prevail this holiday season?
"We'll have to wait and see," Cardinale said. "Monsters has a head start, since the movie has already opened and received good reviews, and Lord of the Rings doesn't open until December.... We won't know who comes out on top until January."
"It's all up to the consumer now.... Will they go to the movie and make it a hit, and then into stores in search of licensed products? We'll know soon after Nov. 16."
Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
