THE GIST: Optical networking will explode, and the way we connect to everything will never be the same. Just as the microprocessor invasion of the early '80s brought computer smarts to cars and kitchens, cheap, widespread bandwidth will revolutionize our daily lives again by linking all our devices together.
FALSE ALARM: Skeptics say fiber to the home won't catch on because running house-to-house cable is too pricey, but wireless optical systems could use lasers to beam broadband right through the window instead. As DSL and cable modem connections prove too slow for power users, fast-falling hardware costs could make gigabit access as affordable as cable TV - and much more desirable.
EXHIBIT A: Fiber-optic lines are already spreading out from the Internet backbone: Manufacturer 3M estimates that more than 5 million office computers are plugged directly into optical LANs. These networks deliver 100 Mbps - the equivalent of 300 Web videostreams - straight to the desktop. With the cost of fiber halving every nine months and optical switches quickly being developed to replace today's electrical routers, home consumers who can't afford to upgrade now may eventually get wired for free: In rural Grant County, Washington, the local public power agency - to track moment-to-moment demand on automated meters - is running fiber to 150 homes and businesses at no charge.
WORDS TO LIVE BY: "We'll have much more integration over the network than is possible today. When you have a thousand times more bandwidth, machines talking to one another on our behalf will generate most of the traffic. It's going to be a surprise where it leads us. Most of our predictions are based on very linear thinking. That's why they will likely be wrong: Technology follows exponential curves."
ON THE RISE: Enthusiasts today donate their idle processing power to remote research projects. But supercomputing experts say fiber optic speeds would let home computer owners share spare cycles for their own purposes, like fast multiplayer games or advanced graphics.
FUTURE REFERENCE: Optical Solutions (www.opticalsolutions.com); City of Palo Alto Fiber to the Home Trial (www.cpau.com/fth); Grant County Public Utility District Fiber Optics Pilot Program (www.gcpud.org/zipp); Gigabit Ethernet Alliance (www.gigabit-ethernet.org); Terabeam (www.terabeam.com)
