Ask enough gerontologists, biologists, geneticists, and biotech entrepreneurs about the potential for immortality, and you'll get a range of conflicting answers that fall into three camps: Forget It, Could Be, and Can Do. Almost all agree that immortality won't mean literally living forever. Eventually, everyone will step in front of a hovercar or succumb to an übervirus of mysterious origin. Still, doesn't "almost forever" sound pretty good? Based on our conversations with the experts, here's the realm of possible scenarios for gauging your chances of crossing the rainbow bridge into superlongevity.
If You Are 100: The good news is that you have a fighting chance of hitting 110. You can guess the bad news.
If You Are 70: Assuming you enjoy good health now, you have a respectable shot at 100. Your chances are better if you're a woman.
If You Are 40: You're going to die, darn it, but some of what scientists are researching may be of use to you. Most of you will push 85. More than 1 million of you will live to be 100 or older. If the most optimistic researchers - William Haseltine, for instance - are right, a significant number of you will live past the current maximum human life span, possibly to 135.
If You Are 30: Close, but not quite. But hey, you'll look great! Advanced plastic-implant and tissue engineering will give you access to augmentations and biologically matched replacement parts by age 80. Oral or injectable gene-based aging treatments will ameliorate many of the diseases of aging that plagued your parents. Some of you will even live to see 2100.
If You Are 10: Immortalizing therapies will be available by pill and injection by the time you hit 40 - but you'll have aged, and the drugs will be pricey and imperfect. The wealthiest of you will live to 150.
If You Are Minus 20: Bingo! By the time you're a gleam in your parents' eyes, they'll be able to choose germline engineering - tinkering with sperm and egg - to select for extended life span. Though this won't address all possible variables, you will age much more slowly and take full advantage of available life-extending drugs later on. Many of you will be the first substantially augmented human beings. Can-Do researchers figure that all these bonuses will combine to make life spans of 500 or 1,000 possible. But just to be safe, write out that last will and testament no later than your 200th birthday.
