With a major mobile phone upgrade in the works worldwide, a new generation of wireless gadgets is now within arm's reach.
To be sure, third-generation -- or 3G -- phones will have some impressive capabilities for new Net-based communications. But the effects on wireless subscribers will depend on standards being negotiated by the wireless heavyweights of the world and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).
The ITU is in the final stages of establishing a global standard for mobile phones that will make it possible for a single handset to recognize multiple radio interfaces around the world. Dubbed IMT-2000, the standard is meant to be a framework for 3G phones and wireless services.
Whereas second-generation wireless phones transfer data at about 9.6 Kbps, 3G devices will be able to receive data at 2 Mbps.
Francine Lambert, a spokeswoman for the ITU, said real-time audio/video, radio, video mail, and other bandwidth-intensive services will soon be a mobile reality.
"You will be able to see the same as you can from your desktop on the Web. You can have video, radio, access to train and airline schedules, access to your bank. It [3G devices] will combine all the tools that you have today to deal with your leisure or your business," Lambert said.
The rollout of 3G phones is expected to start in the East and work its way West. In Japan, the first high-data rate phones could hit the market in 2001, reach Europe in 2003, and arrive in the US by 2004, according to the ITU.
A host of wireless companies have already announced plans for 3G phones that take advantage of Internet access and high-speed transmissions. The ITU estimates that there will be more mobile phones in 10 years than fixed-line phones, and 3G devices will be a $US 9 billion market by 2005.
Ray Jodoin, a wireless analyst with Cahners In-Stat Group, said that the 3G wireless world will shape up without a hitch in most parts of the world, where the global system for mobile communications standard, or GSM, is in place.
In the US, however, competing standards may cause some growing pains.
"This [IMT-2000] is going forward and progressing in most areas, with one exception -- the Americas -- because no one in the FCC knows what in the hell they're doing. We [the US] seem to place more interest in whether or not we can sell something that’s not ours to sell -- spectrum -- for money, than whether or not we conform with the rest of the world. This is another glaring example of us pressing forward come hell or high water," said Jodoin.
The wireless conflict in the United States is caused by multiple standards competing for spectrum space, primarily code division multiple access (CDMA) and time division multiple access (TDMA).
The wireless standard used in Europe and Asia, GSM, has recently been making headway in the US as well. Earlier this year, Ericsson and Qualcomm agreed to jointly support a single-world CDMA standard, but the competition between the two is far from over.
Perry LaForge, executive director of the CDMA Development Group, said CDMA is only gaining steam and it is poised to use the advanced features and bandwidth that 3G phones will have.
"While European governments and operators feel like they have a leg up with GSM, I think it's shortsighted, and that disadvantages them because they won't have a choice to go with the most effective process. They'll be playing catch up over a number of years."
LaForge thinks CDMA providers will lead the way in the 3G market with customized applications. Devices will offer simple interfaces, custom applications, and location-specific services, he said citing the Neopoint phone as an example of what's to come.
But will improved 3G technology and new wireless gadgets make it easier for subscribers to take care of business?
Maybe.
"What we have now in the US is four different standards over two different frequency bands, with four interfaces that don’t talk to one another. You don't know what to take with you when you're on a business trip…we're gonna have the [increased] data rates here, but what we will not have is the ability to go from city A to city B and be sure that the phone will work," Jodoin said.
However, LaForge said, "People are already working on CDMA/GSM phones today, and I would be very surprised if you don't see an announcement this year."
But before any of these new wireless devices and services really take off, important details to be sorted out, foremost of which is the access to cell networks.
In March, ITU members met in Brazil to hammer out some of the technical standards to make IMT-2000 a reality, and another meeting is scheduled in next May in Istanbul. There, some of the biggest political battles will be over the global spectrum allocation, and how much control regional regulators like the FCC will have in the new market.
"If you want competition on a world wide scale…you have to allow all five radio interfaces to be available according to the operators' wishes. And [it will be] the regulators that will fix those rules of the game at the national level," said Lambert.
With international companies like Qualcomm, Ericsson, Nokia, Lucent, Alcatel, Motorola, and Toshiba in the discussions, regional interests are sure to create some tension.
