NEW ECONOMY
In Michael Schrage's soon-to-be-published book, Serious Play (Harvard Business School Press), the consultant, MIT Media Lab research associate, and Wired contributing writer examines a common cause of executive insomnia these days: the need to innovate. While many business gurus advise company leaders to trust their gut to stay ahead, Schrage contends that computer-based simulation of business prototypes is a much better tool for perspiring visionaries. Schrage explains what's behind the current vogue in model behavior.
Wired: What are the advantages of computer modeling - and why use it now?
Schrage: We have the ability to model - to prototype - faster, better, and cheaper than ever before. The old back-of-the-envelope is becoming a supercomputer-driven louver! We think of innovation as something that happens in order to come up with a prototype, but increasingly innovation is the by-product of the way people behave around prototypes.
How so?
A lot of people believe that the product of the design process is the prototype. Man, that's bass-ackwards! The prototype isn't the product - it drives what you do. You know you have a great idea not when someone says you have a great idea, but when someone says, "Hey, have you thought about such-and-such?" and that makes your idea even better. That's innovation - the reaction to the prototype. What is a model but a platform for creating that kind of interaction? We have a great example of this in software. It's called Linux.
What makes you confident modeling will go mainstream?
The rise of the spreadsheet. It has utterly, completely, and totally transformed financial services worldwide. And the spreadsheet is a medium not just for the most sophisticated financial modelers, but for the masses as well.
What conditions should businesses be modeling for?
Surprises. Organizations that don't model for surprise will lose the ability to quickly take advantage of serendipity.
But isn't surprise something you don't see coming?
Yes! But the key, you see, is coming up with models that are capable of generating counterintuitive results. Models serve us best when they challenge assumptions.
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