LOS ANGELES -- Topic A at this year's Webnoize conference has been how far the medium has come over the last year -- the MP3 craze, the Rio, the move toward an encryption standard, the growing presence of major record labels.
But according to MIT Media Lab researcher Eric Scheirer, you ain't seen nothing yet. Over the next three to five years, he predicted, online music will become a seamless part of the mainstream consumer's entertainment experience. To wit:
Move over, CDs: Portable devices that download music from the Internet "will overwhelm CD players" Scheirer said in a keynote speech. The frenzy will be powered by dropping prices, the ability to customize a device's play list, and the lack of moving parts in digital audio devices.
Surfing in your car: Car radios will be wirelessly linked to the Internet, and will have interactive capabilities. "You will be able to impulse buy by pressing a button on your radio, and download it to your radio," Scheirer said.
Not only will you be able to link wirelessly to the Internet through your car radio, you'll be able to download stuff to portable digital music devices and have your charge account automatically billed.
Fast, cheap, and under your control: Users who only have to pay, say, 1/100th of a cent per streaming song might not bother downloading music at all on those car or home stereos. Another likely trend: For a penny a song, intelligent agents will search the Web for music to your tastes and have it waiting on your favorite download device in the morning.
Contrary to popular opinion, your stereo is not going to become your computer, or vice versa, Scheirer said. Yes, you'll probably have a hard disk that can download music directly from the Internet. Electronics makers will do their best to make it as easy to operate as your current stereo.
An important caveat: All these developments depend upon the big record labels developing a more sophisticated stance about copyright protection, Scheirer said. Some major music content producers "have painted themselves into a corner" by refusing to release music on the Web that could be ripped off. "And there is a real danger that if not enough SDMI devices are sold, content owners will hold back on legitimate content," Scheirer said. That, in turn, "will encourage people to pirate content," starting a vicious circle.
The labels need to accept that "it's not possible to make a music standard that actually works," Scheirer said. Even if SDMI is adopted as a standard, hackers will always stay close on the encryption developers' tails.
Playing the odds: The real question, Scheirer said, is whether the content producers and distributors will be willing to accept a less-than-perfect solution for selling online music -- much as video producers today accept that a small percentage of bootlegged product is the cost of doing business.
"As long as the music industry continues to focus on energy and protection, they're going to continue to be disappointed," Scheirer said. "If you want to move on to the next vine, you need to let go of the last one."
