LOS ANGELES -- The Blair Witch Project, the first wide-release film primarily marketed on the Internet, is well on its way to becoming the top-grossing independently produced horror film of all time.
The film, produced by tiny Artisan Entertainment for about US$1.5 million (including marketing and advertising costs), will do about $28 million in its first weekend of wide release, putting the film No. 2 at the box office behind comedy Runaway Bride, at $35 million. Blair Witch cost just $40,000 to make.
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That puts Blair Witch on track to gross between $120 million and $150 million at the domestic box office -- dwarfing other cult horror hits like New Line's Nightmare on Elm Street ($25 million) and Compass's Hallowe'en ($80 million), according to movie market researcher Reel Source.
An 11-month Internet campaign that created a cult following for the film long before it screened is the main reason for the film's huge opening, Reel Source President Robert Bucksbaum said.
"Artisan didn't have the marketing budget to do a big push on television," Bucksbaum said. "So they aimed their campaign at 17- to 28-year-olds who stay at home and surf the Net. If you're getting 3 million hits on your site per day from that, who needs television?"
Artisan executives could not be reached for comment Sunday.
Starting four weeks ago in just 27 theaters nationwide, the film is screening this week in more than 1,100 theaters, putting it on par with big summer releases.
By next week, Bucksbaum predicted, the film will be No. 1 at the box office. With its fan base clearly established, Artisan is now promoting the film in newspapers and in television spots.
The showing is all the more striking because Artisan is a relatively unknown independent. For films like Runaway Bride, major studios usually budget at least $35 million for production and tens of millions of dollars more for marketing.
"This is going to turn the movie business on its head," Bucksbaum said. "You can already hear the studio executives saying, 'Why are we paying Arnold Schwarzenegger $25 million when we can get [actors] for $500 a week?'" Currently, Hollywood studios only spend a few percent of a movie's total budget on Internet promotions. Blair Witch's surprise performance will increase that commitment tenfold, Bucksbaum predicted.
The success of the film -- and Hollywood's stunned reaction -- recalls the launching of Titanic, which became the highest-grossing film in history despite its record-breaking $200 million-plus budget. This time, the shocker is the minuscule budget.
The release of Blair Witch comes as new digital filmmaking techniques are enabling independent producers to create theater-quality films at a fraction of the cost of big-studio budgets. It's a trend that some believe could threaten the domination of deep-pocketed media companies like Time Warner and Disney.
The success of the film -- which chronicles the weird events surrounding the disappearance of three documentary filmmakers -- is no surprise to fans at dozens of Web sites, such as Blair Witch Project Boards.
"The Internet has hyped up the movie, and has increased ticket sales," wrote Northern California-based Mia Mazza in response to a Wired News email query at the site.
After seeing the film "I had to immediately log onto the Internet and read what people were saying about it, because I couldn't find anyone around home to sympathize with me," Mazza wrote. "I was up very late chatting on the Internet about the movie, hoping it would make me feel better, but it didn't.
"There are so many unanswered questions being discussed on the Internet, that people want to see it again and again."
