CARLSBAD, California -- While every tech pundit sings to a broadband future, a Compaq researcher brought a reality check to the bandwidth issue.
In his keynote speech at the EnterTech conference, Andrew Cromarty of the Compaq Network Systems Lab pooh-poohed the notion that cable modems, DSL, and Pentium-III computers will solve the problem of delivering high-quality video in real time over the Internet.
"We should not expect to see TV quality over the Internet over the next year or even the next three or four," he said.
Consumers should dispense with fantasies about booting up and enjoying crystal-clear video conferences with Mom over the public Internet, he said.
Instead, you could digitize Mom's image and keep it stashed in your computer until she calls, he said. Tie it to software that makes the image lip-sync and respond with the correct emotional expressions when she calls on the phone, and voilà: You've got Mom.
Cromarty said that for years to come, such low-bandwidth animations will be the only realistic way to send large chunks of video over the public Internet.
Meanwhile, home computers' processing speed and storage capacity are growing at exponential rates. That increased capacity simplifies the process for end users to represent large chunks of reality with animation.
He showed off Compaq's work in this area to a few hundred bemused tech-heads and Hollywood suits on Sunday night. He morphed an on-screen image of some Compaq employee's poor kid into a blinking egghead who looked like he belonged behind aquarium glass. But, yes, it was a realistic effect.
Granted, Cromarty's forté isn't making animations that you would feel comfortable talking to on your computer. But who could feel at all comfortable with the idea?
Cromarty maintains that it's really just a matter of getting used to it.
"A hundred years ago, people got all upset with the idea of talking to people over the telephone," he said. "'You mean, I'm not going to see the person at the other end of the line?' But your children are going to be totally comfortable with this technology."
In the demo room at La Costa resort, Dominic Massaro, a psychology professor from the University of California at Santa Cruz, demonstrated his own version of talking heads that looked somewhat more believable -- at least after a couple of glasses of wine.
Massaro, who has written a book about faces and perception, was demonstrating how an animated face he calls "Baldy" responds to his voice over a microphone.
"Act disgusted," he said into the microphone to Baldy. "What now?" replied Baldy, who looked and sounded disgusted.
"Act surprised," said Massaro.
"What now?" Baldy replied, with an astonished-looking face.
"Suzanne Vega," Massaro said.
And Baldy dutifully became an image of Vega, lip-syncing to her songs.
Still, there may be some bugs to work out. Massaro's faces currently have the emotional appeal of death masks, but he said that the aesthetic snag could easily be untangled in subsequent versions.
