At a time when futurists are hawking their wares on every street corner, it seems reasonable we might overlook Ray Kurzweil, the savant inventor who in his first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990), predicted the proliferation of the Internet and that a computer would defeat a chess champion. Considering this track record, it also seems reasonable that we ignore Kurzweil at our own peril.
Now, in The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil makes the convincing case that technological development will proceed at such a breakneck pace over the next 30, 50, and 100 years that by the end of the next century our species should, for all intents and purposes, be merged with its technology. Of course, we've heard it all before. But what Kurzweil brings to the table is sobriety. While he exudes a boyish optimism, there is little of the booster's jargon in his book.
Most of his predictions are based on the law of accelerating returns, which says that as the species becomes increasingly sophisticated and life becomes more orderly, technological developments occur at an exponential pace. This idea, of course, has a lot of currency in today's self-proclaimed "accelerated society." However, Kurzweil is talking far beyond quirky camera angles and extreme sports. According to calculations based on the simple progression of Moore's Law (which, he notes, will be defunct around 2020), by midcentury $1,000 will buy the computing power of 1,000 brains (the same sum buys a mere fraction of human potential today).
In deference to his title, Kurzweil tackles some of the moral and philosophical issues surrounding this steady march forward: When do we consider machine intelligence to be conscious? (When the machines tell us so.) Whither nature? ("The laws of physics are not repealed by intelligence, but they effectively evaporate in its presence.") At times these salvos can venture far afield, as in his belief that we will achieve a state of virtual immortality. But, for the most part, he is content to stay grounded and simply play the role of agent provocateur: "For now, it's enough just to ask the right questions."
The Age of Spiritual Machines, by Ray Kurzweil: $24.95. Viking: www.penguinputnam.com/kurzweil.
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