Among the more outlandish scenarios envisioned by Year 2000 doomsayers is that the millennium bug will crash prison security systems and open the razor-wire gates, setting loose untold numbers of violent and dangerous offenders.
"People joke about doors flying open but it's a very distinct possibility," said Dr. Michael Harden, an information technology manager for 20 years and author of a study that examined the impact of Y2K on embedded computer systems.
"If a prison is defined by its ability to control inmates and all these systems break down, a prison ceases to become a prison and it becomes a hotel."
Harden's concerns are echoed by corrections officers, law enforcement officials, and security experts who gathered in Austin, Texas, on Thursday for a conference focusing on Y2K's impact on prisons.
At the very least, observers say, Y2K could disrupt prison security enough to put corrections officials in jeopardy. And in the most unsettling scenario, a Y2K crash could seriously compromise a prison's perimeter security.
Though it's hard to generalize about the potential impact of the millennium bug on the nation's jails, virtually all the experts agree that governments have been slow to respond to the challenge.
Peter O'Farrell, a physical plant systems consultant and speaker at Thursday's Year 2000 and Embedded Systems conference, said the Massachusetts' correctional system hired a Y2K manager only two weeks ago.
"The difficulty is in trying to get people to buckle down and go through their systems," said O'Farrell.
Prisons: A Y2K Minefield?
The computer and database-driven prison system is a potential minefield of Y2K glitches. The parole system at the California Department of Corrections, for example, is built atop three distinct databases. Then there are the inmate records, which are maintained by computers in most prisons and jails -- though conventional paper files are often kept.
"[Y2K] could have an impact in terms of management's ability to maintain inmate records," said Jim Ricketts, president of Technology Systems International, a company that is developing a new generation of high-tech prisons.
Ricketts said that foul-ups of that nature could result in the premature release of prisoners.
But David Hall, an embedded systems expert with the Cara Corporation, scoffs at the idea. After completing Y2K risk assessments at three state prisons, Hall believes that computerized security systems are not widespread enough for the millennium bug to pose a real threat.
"We're finding that there are a lot less problems than we thought there would be," he said. "Everything we've found can be fixed, providing that facilities [departments] start now."
But Michael Harden said the corrections systems has an Achilles heel in the form of the thousands of embedded chips -- computer chips permanently burned with software code -- hidden throughout the facilities.
"You couldn't build a modern prison today without computers.... It makes them very vulnerable [to Y2K]," said Harden. "The more modern the prison, the more likely it is to be reliant on computer chips or computer systems for control of all their security functions."
In a typical office building, embedded chips hide inside badge readers, elevators, fire-detection systems and electric generators. A prison has all those systems, plus security cameras, door locks, alarm systems, and communications networks.
"It's not like a school," said Hall, another speaker at Thursday's conference. "If the power goes down, you can't send the prisoners home. The stuff that happens in prisons becomes more critical."
California: Bright Spot in a Dark Picture?
The California Department of Corrections runs the nation's largest prison system -- the state's inmate population is nearly 50 percent larger than that of the Federal Bureau of Prisons. Furthermore, California's parole system keeps tabs on 107,693 offenders.
"I'm confident that we've got a good handle on things," said Larry Wagner, chief technology officer for the state's prison system. "The comfort level is reasonably high."
Wagner said California has been making progress on heading off Y2K pitfalls, largely because the state got an early jump.
On 3 October 1997, Governor Pete Wilson signed an executive order declaring Y2K an official state priority. In that order, he directed every state agency to defer new computer projects until essential systems were brought into compliance.
Wilson set a fix-it deadline of 31 December 1998, and ordered the Department of Information Technology to coordinate and fund the state's Y2K compliance efforts. Under the program, the California Department of Corrections received an extra $5 million specifically for Y2K.
Wagner said his department's critical software applications will be fixed before Wilson's deadline. For example, the Interim Parolee Tracking System, the statewide parolee database that feeds information to federal computers at the Department of Justice, is already Y2K compliant.
Wagner is developing formal Y2K contingency plans, but he expects the 15,000 desktop PCs and tens of thousands of embedded systems within the California prison system to be up to snuff by 30 June 1999.
Still, it hasn't been easy.
"The desktop problem has frankly shocked even me as to the degree of problems we're discovering," said Wagner. He said he found Y2K problems in computers purchased as recently as this year.
Wagner said that hardware and software vendors such as Microsoft and Oracle have been reluctant to guarantee the compliance of their products. In other cases, statements made by vendors have proven false or inaccurate, though he declined to give specifics.
Federal Prisons: A Mixed Bag
If the California Department of Corrections is emerging as one of the handful of Y2K success stories, the jury is still out on the Federal Bureau of Prisons.
As with all federal agencies, the bureau is expected to eradicate the Y2K bug by 31 March 1999. However, the Department of Justice, which oversees the federal prison system, was downgraded from a "D" to an "F" rating in a recent congressional Y2K report card.
"I really don't think the bureau [of prisons] is extremely sensitive to Y2K," said Buford Goff, who runs Buford Goff and Associates, an engineering firm that specializes in the planning and construction of security systems for correctional facilities.
Goff said he has designed security systems for prisons in 33 states, which translates into more than 200,000 prison cells.
Edward Ayscue, head of facilities management at the Federal Bureau of Prisons, said that the bureau has completed its inventory of embedded systems. However, he declined to provide a specific completion date for fixing them all.
"We'd like to be finished with repairs by the end of the calendar year," said Ayscue, "but unfortunately there are some vendors who have not verified the compliance of their equipment."
Ayscue said the Federal Bureau of Prisons has hired an outside firm to test the department's scores of embedded systems. That work will begin late this year or in early 1999.
Furthermore, he said the bureau is working on contingency plans -- many which are modified versions of existing prison contingency plans. Nevertheless, Ayscue admits that the bureau will not be able to test every embedded computer chip.
"That's impossible," he said. "We rely on manufacturers to give us credible information."
Some experts criticize what they say is a lack of testing in federal prisons.
"I don't believe there has been a significant level of testing of embedded systems in prison," said Harden. "The few tests that I have seen are not reassuring."
Cautious Optimism
Despite the fears that the Year 2000 will wreak havoc in the correctional system, Goff and other experts believe that Y2K's impact on the prison system will be minimal if officials attack the problem seriously and quickly.
Even if they do, though, Hall thinks prisons could feel the effects of external Y2K disasters resulting in local power failures and communications breakdowns.
If that happened, and the worst-case scenarios did indeed materialize, one expert floated the surreal forecast that free citizens, bereft of life's necessities, could end up racing to the well-stocked coffers of their local prison.
"You're probably going to end up with a mob at the prison gate," predicts O'Farrell.
"You've got a year's supply of food, you've got heating, electricity, a hospital, and a gymnasium," he said. "Everything you need is there."
