In the first Senate committee hearing to discuss the millennium bug's impact on the nation's airports, railways, waterways, and roadways, the consensus on Thursday was that major disruption of US transportation was inevitable.
"I am concerned that the transportation sector as a whole may not be able to transition through the millennium without major disruptions," said Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah), chairman of the Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. The disruptions could occur when the date flips over to 1 January 2000. Computers, programmed to recognize only the last two digits, may read the date as 1900, which could trigger errors and crashes.
Bennett went on to warn that the "interdependencies of these companies with their partners and suppliers -- both foreign and domestic -- make the transportation sector extremely complex and, thus, make the Year 2000 issues difficult to address."
The committee expressed concern that the ground-based information systems supporting air travel would not be ready in time. It also said that failure to repair critical systems such as aircraft maintenance, passenger ticketing, and reservation systems could result in reduced capacity, flight delays, and cancellations.
Transportation experts, however, downplayed the committee's talk of an impending crisis. Tom Browne, executive director of the Air Transport Association, a trade group representing 28 major airlines, including American, United, and Northwest, said that flight safety is not at risk.
"We're going to have some problems," admitted Browne, who compared Y2K's impact to that of a blizzard, but "my prediction is that they'll be minor annoyances."
Jane Garvey, administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, testified before the committee that 100 percent of the FAA's ground- and air-traffic control systems are on track to be renovated by 30 September 1998. However, committee members noted that testing and certification -- the most arduous part of a Y2K remediation effort -- still need to be completed. "I am concerned that there may be too much to do and too little time," said Bennett.
The hearing is the committee's fifth on the Year 2000 problem. Testimony in this latest round was heard from the deputy secretary of transportation, the commissioner of the Port of Seattle, and representatives from Delta Airlines, the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority, and Union Pacific.
The special committee also released the results of a survey commissioned to assess the effectiveness of 32 major transportation service providers in stomping out the millennium problem. The survey, which received a 50 percent response rate, presents a disturbing picture of a critical industry that has been slow to acknowledge the magnitude of the Y2K challenge.
Of the respondents, 62 percent have completed only their assessment stage, which experts regard as the second phase of a five-phase Y2K process. Furthermore, all of the respondents said they have not completed contingency plans, and more than half reported that they are not even working on contingency plans.
Despite these poor results, the responding companies did not seem too worried. All but one of the companies -- which included airlines, railroads, shipping, and trucking concerns -- predicted that they will finish their Y2K preparations in time for the new millennium.
The committee was less convinced.
"Keep in mind that we only surveyed leaders in the industry with vast resources to apply to the problem," said Bennett, who described the transportation industry as the "lifeline" of the global economy. "So, presumably others in the industry are far behind."
The hearing's evidence is reinforced by an ongoing Air Transport Association survey that recently reported that 38 percent of the airports surveyed do not yet have an overall Year 2000 plan.
"It does not necessarily mean that they don't have any work going on," said Browne. "But it is disconcerting that they don't have any plan."
A number of other transportation modes made the committee's serious issues list. For example, Global Positioning System receivers, which have revolutionized navigation in maritime shipping, may not be Y2K ready. And city officials face significant problems with the embedded chips that lie in traffic lights, easy-pass toll systems, and traffic monitoring devices.
"I have often said that there are three places I don't want to be on January 1, 2000 -- an airplane, a hospital, or an elevator," said Bennett. "I haven't changed my mind."
