President Clinton addressed the year 2000 computer problem (Y2K) publicly for the first time yesterday, but some politicians and technical experts, while heartened by his remarks, say it's too little too late.
Considering the magnitude of the challenge, critics charge that the federal government's efforts to solve the year 2000 problem are disorganized, understaffed, and crawling along at a snail's pace.
"The US government continues to make progress," writes Dr. Edward Yardeni, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities, "but the pace is too slow. No one is setting national priorities and preparing national contingency plans."
Addressing the National Academy of Sciences, Clinton broke his longtime silence on Y2K by stressing the urgency of solving what may well become the world's biggest technical nightmare.
The Y2K problem, or millennium bug, is caused by old computers programmed to read only the last two digits of the current year. Systems that aren't upgraded will mistakenly read 2000 as 1900, potentially causing a catastrophic breakdown in the computing infrastructure.
Clinton said if the millennium bug is not addressed it could lead to "a rash of annoyances," or, worse, major disruptions in essential services such as electric power, phone service, and air travel.
"I have made it clear to every member of my Cabinet," said Clinton, "that the American people have the right to expect uninterrupted service from the government and I expect them to deliver."
While warning of "gaping holes" in efforts by both the public and private sector to prepare their computer systems for the turn of the century, Clinton laid out a number of policy steps to smooth the transition.
For starters, Clinton proposed "good Samaritan" legislation that would limit the liability of companies that share information about Year 2000 solutions if the data turns out to be wrong. He also said the United States would contribute US$12 million to a World Bank program designed to help developing countries solve the computer problem.
Clinton has set a March 1999 deadline for the federal government to get its house in order, but it's unlikely Washington will be able to meet that goal.
Rep. Steven Horn (R-California), one of the president's most vocal Y2K critics, says this is a major step for the administration that suggests they're no longer in "denial" about the millennium bug. But he said this speech will have to be backed up by concerted and consistent action, which, he says, has been lacking up until now.
Recently, Horn issued a congressional report card that gave the federal government an "F" for its progress on the issue.
The report indicated that 13 of the government's 24 largest agencies won't have their "mission-critical" computers ready by January 2000. The Department of Defense, Department of Transportation, Department of Energy, Department of Health and Human Services, and State Department were singled out as the government's worst performers. Conversely, the Social Security Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, and National Science Foundation are relatively farther along in their efforts.
Horn's tough assessment has been supported by other surveys. A recent report by the General Accounting Office estimated that only 40 percent of the most critical federal computer systems were prepared for the Year 2000. Without "dramatic progress," the report warned, serious interruptions of government service are inevitable.
John Koskinen, deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget and chairman of the Year 2000 Conversion Council, which is overseeing federal Y2K efforts, says he remains confident that even the most laggardly agencies will upgrade in time.
Later this month, the council plans to launch a national campaign for Year 2000 solutions, promoting partnerships and cooperation between industry and government.
Information exchange -- the process of identifying vulnerabilities, then offering solutions -- is considered by all accounts to be the sine qua non for solving the Y2K problem. But many companies are reluctant to share information, fearing that their due diligence addressing potential Y2K problems could end up being used against them in a lawsuit.
Clinton's proposed legislation, which is circulating in draft form, is designed to assuage those legal fears by providing some limitations on liability.
Already, many of the nation's biggest law firms have set up Y2K practices that often draw on the expertise of dozens of lawyers. Legal experts predict that the Year 2000 problem could trigger an avalanche of litigation. Lloyds of London, for instance, last year estimated $1 trillion in Y2K-related litigation in the US alone.
