With the flurry of Iridium launches finished, the custodians of the satellite economy �- launch rocket and support companies such as Arianespace -� are gearing up for a much bigger contest. The prize? As big a piece of the communications satellite launch market as a facility can handle.
To compete, the France-based Arianespace and others are beyond studying projects like the ambitious Teledesic; instead, they are incorporating the dimensions of these communications constellations into their future plans. In remarks before the Berlin Air Show on Tuesday, Arianespace chief Jean-Marie Luton outlined an aggressive business plan, one in which lower production costs will allow them to offer lower launch prices -� and rockets that can accommodate the increasingly popular low-Earth orbit satellites.
"The various stages in the adaptation of [the Ariane 5 launch rocket] to evolving market requirements are clearly defined ... launcher production and launch rate (per site) will be increased to 12 per year as early as in 2002," Luton said in a company statement.
These projections are based on data that the commercial launch industry is taking very seriously. Launch companies are anticipating a dramatic increase in the number of launches from the current rate of five to 10 per year per site, to between 20 and 30 annually, beginning in 2001. This rate takes into account more than 500 satellites from various Motorola projects including next-generation Iridium and Celestri and the 288 satellite constellation proposed by Teledesic. Each launch carries as many as five satellites.
"It's going to be quiet for the next couple of years, but then the market will really heat up," said Dominick Barry, director of technical services for Spaceport Systems International, a commercial launch systems support firm that operates out of California�s Vandenberg Air Force Base.
This new market is big enough to generate, in total, about 60 to 90 launches per year. Of those, 40 to 70 could be accessible to rockets operated by Arianespace such as the Ariane 4 and 5. The stakes are very high. The cost just to support launches is roughly US$200 billion, Barry noted.
And the competition will be fierce. By the time these communications systems are ready to launch, there will be nearly 20 launch sites around the world, seven of which can handle big geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites as well as the smaller LEOs that will be used by Teledesic.
Survival in this market will hinge on the ability of competitors to churn out rockets at a faster pace and have a smaller gap between launches. This will reduce the turn around time between launches from months to weeks, said Jean-Michel Desobeau, director of engineering for Arianespace in Washington, DC.
"Our role is to become more and more like a commodity," Desobeau explained. Launches will become more routine. "A spaceport will run just like an airport -� a servicing facility for rockets."
