Online Chat: Venture capitalists travel in herds, stampeding from one technology to the next. But look at past technologies they have embraced en masse, from pen computing to Internet push companies, and you’ll realize that VCs may be the best contrarian indicator around. And even if you didn’t know that they’re circling Internet chat start-ups like vultures, you’d probably still figure out that this technology is a loser. Instant-messaging programs combine the worst aspects of the media it hopes to replace: the interruptive nature of telephone calls and the laborious typing of email.
Embedded DRAM: With memory-chip supply outpacing demand, DRAM manufacturers have been feeling the pinch. So it’s no surprise that they are touting embedded DRAM as the second coming. Combining logic and memory – essentially putting a microprocessor on a DRAM chip – would allow manufacturers to escape from their grubby subsistence. There’s just one problem: The Japanese and Korean conglomerates know nothing about processor design, and US companies are rank amateurs in the black art of DRAM design. Given the paranoia about trade secrets on both sides, a successful partnership between memory and logic looks awfully unlikely.
Space Race: Beyond the Mars Pathfinder project, space fever is busting out all over. From paranoid tales of Grays and alien abductions to rumors that rapid wealth accumulation in Silicon Valley has spurred the development of privately financed space programs (á la Moonraker, perhaps?), outer space is replacing cyberspace as the destination of choice. But the technologies behind both environments make the same transcendental promise: escape from the stink of humanity. And both will end up disappointing. Whether it’s the human trash that orbits Earth, or the pornography and pettiness that covers the Internet, humanity always comes with us.
Voice Over IP: According to rabid Netheads, making a call over the Internet is inherently cheaper than using a conventional phone, thanks to the Net’s superior technology. A nice idea, but too bad it’s fantasy. The Net is an inexpensive pipeline largely because ISPs dodge taxes borne by telephone companies. And it sacrifices reliability for low cost. But telephone companies are headed for extinction anyway. With the amount of data traffic growing almost a hundred times faster than voice traffic, the telephone network will soon be no more important than the Telex network.
Teletubbies: Without a doubt, the strangest thing about the Teletubbies – those antennaed, acid-colored dancing creatures with names like Tinky Winky and Laa Laa – is that they are a product of BBC television. We’re used to bizarre TV shows from Japan – such as the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers – but from staid old England? One viewing of Teletubbies will erase any doubt that house culture and ecstasy have irreparably changed the UK’s social chromosomes. Expect this show to be huge once it starts appearing on US television. The only question is, who will tune in more – its intended audience of five-year-olds, or stoned twentysomethings?
This article originally appeared in the October issue of Wired magazine.
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