Reality Check
The Future of Firearms
Dumdums, sure – but smart bullets? Ah, the beauty of cognitive dissonance. Like everyone in the private sector, weapons designers are applying the fruits of the digital age to their craft, and unless the right to bear arms gets muzzled, at least some form of America's frontier spirit is here to stay. But even pacifists should take heart. Today's technology has the capability to make guns safer as well as more deadly. It's a double edged sword, but one that should be easier to live with. Wired asked several experts to take their best shot at predicting the future of firearms.
| Smart Guns | Smart Bullets | Taggants | Ray Guns
| Kokalis | 1997 | unlikely | unlikely | 2050
| Long | 2010 | 3000 | unlikely | 1997
| Picatinny Arsenal | 1997 | 2005 | 2005 | 2025
| Rigas | 1999 | unlikely | unlikely | 1997
| Bottom Line | 2001 | unlikely | unlikely | 2015
Given that 17 percent of all police deaths involve officers shot with their own weapons, a smart gun – one that can be fired only by its owner – seems a smart idea. "This technology has its strongest advocates among the so-called 'antigun' groups," Kokalis says. In current prototypes designed by Colt Manufacturing, the gun stays locked until a ring embedded with a code is held near the handle. Future models may be capable of scanning for fingerprints or listening for specific voice patterns. But, warns Long, only half-jokingly, once high tech firearms are widely available, "a brisk business in 'bootleg,' lock defeated guns will likely develop among criminals." In any case, Rigas responds, smart guns "will save a lot of lives."
Imagine a cruise missile the size of a .45 slug. That's the basic idea behind smart bullets that might use laser-tracking systems and swiveling nose cones to correct for bad aim. But unlike the larger projectiles, Long says, smart bullets – particularly for handguns – don't have much time or space to adjust for error. More likely are grenade-style bullets that would "hit the target with shrapnel, or smart sights that automatically bring the weapon onto the target." On the other hand, as Rigas points out, handgun ammunition needs to be inexpensive, a difficult goal for bullet manufacturers. In military arenas, however, cost is less of an issue. "Technologies and system-integration schemes dramatically improve the prospects of more highly precise delivery of warheads launched from individual and crew-served weapons," says Goldman.
In the wake of the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City bombings, tracking explosive materials has become a highly political issue. Taggants – serial numbered particles that can be added to gunpowder – help authorities track the purchaser. While our experts insist that taggants are unlikely to catch on, they also note that their opinions are more of a prescription than a prediction. "Progun groups are opposed, stating that it will have no effect on criminal investigations and will adversely affect the combustion qualities of the propellants," Kokalis explains. "Antigun groups, of course, favor this as another means of monitoring the firearms industry." When the issue comes up, the winner will likely be the group with the most congressional sway.
Despite the many advances of the Digital Revolution, you still can't buy a basic Flash Gordon ray gun that will disintegrate your target. We're getting closer, though. Long says that "laser guns, 'officially' used by the military as spotting and targeting systems, are capable of blinding enemy troops." As Rigas notes, tasers – which shoot a high-voltage wire that zaps the target's central nervous system, temporarily knocking them out of commission – and similar contraptions already exist. But what about Han Solo's trusty blaster? "With the fall of the Evil Empire, the anticipated threat has largely diminished," Kokalis says. Indeed, adds Goldman, "creating a device in this size category that can generate and project useful energy levels will continue to be a challenge into the considerable future."
Peter G. Kokalis editor of Firearms, technical editor at Soldier of Fortune.
Duncan Long author of Combat Rifles of the 21st Century and dozens of other firearm texts and science fiction novels.
Picatinny Arsenal John Goldman, chief of the Joint Service Small Arms Program Office at the Picatinny Arsenal, and various other experts at the United States Army Tank-Automotive and Armaments Command, Armament Research, Devlopment Research, Development, and Engineering Center.
John Rigas partner, Zilkha and Company, owners of Colt Manufacturing Company.
