Reality Check
The Future of Radio
In 1895, Guglielmo Marconi made the first mile-long radio transmission with his wireless telegraph, opening tremendous new possibilities for communication. A century later, Terry Gross informs us from one end of the dial while Howard Stern insults us from the other. The average American listens to broadcast radio approximately 3 hours and 45 minutes every weekday. Radio is everywhere, and targeting an audience is simply a matter of choosing the right beat or words. No, video didn't kill the radio star. Wired asked five experts to tune in to the future of radio.
| Digital Audio Broadcasting Catches On | Internet Radio Eclipses Traditional Radio | Pirate Radio Legalized | The Death of Radio
| Mellgren | 2000 | unlikely | unlikely | unlikely
| Sakai | 2003 | 2002 | unlikely | unlikely
| Whitaker | 2005 | 2002 | 2007 | unlikely
| Williams | unlikely | 1998 | unlikely | unlikely
| Yoder | 2020 | unlikely | unlikely | unlikely
| Bottom Line | 2011 | 2007 | unlikely | unlikely
The FCC proudly promises us digital television by 2006, but what about CD-quality radio? "It's the chicken-and-egg scenario," Whitaker says. "Once manufacturers build the digital receiving capability into every receiver, and it is not a premium price feature, it will catch on." Indeed, Yoder comments, "most people are happy with FM-quality audio, so it will be the manufacturers, not the listeners, who make digital broadcasting a reality." But even then, Williams says, the ball will be in the broadcasters' court. "Bitching, complaining, moaning and groaning by the broadcasters' powerful radio and television political action committees could send digital audio broadcasting in the same direction as AM stereo – a technology that was too little, too late."
With the availability of online audio streaming technology, it's easy to play DJ. Is anyone listening? Not during drive time. But more and more people will be clicking rather than tuning in at the home or office, says Williams. According to Sakai, Internet radio and traditional radio will eventually merge: "Radio will become digital, and the receivers (clients) will make pulls through cellular technology." Meanwhile, Mellgren believes that Internet radio will remain a niche format, "appealing to those who want to listen to sporting events, local hometown radio shows, specific personalities, or topics not otherwise available." Besides, Yoder points out, "radios are cheap; computers aren't. And computers involve a learning curve; radios don't."
Currently, micropower "pirate radio" operators can't get a license even if they'd like to. The FCC does not grant licenses for stations broadcasting less than 100 watts, and pirate operators risk fines of up to US$10,000 for each day they broad-cast and possible criminal sanctions of up to $100,000. So what? asks Williams. "Frankly, I don't see the legalization of pirate radio as having merit that outweighs problems with the idea itself or the regulation of it." What's a media hacker to do? Stay underground, it seems. "Overall, FM frequency space is tight and the major broadcasting organizations will be sure that any push for low-power, unlicensed radio is squashed," Yoder says. As a result, Sakai thinks, "these enterprising people are not bothering with trying to change existing rules but are forging ahead on the Internet."
Fifty years after TV hit our living rooms, the AM and FM bands are still thriving. While our experts point out that technological advancements may alter the economics of broadcasting and program distribution, they also agree with Mellgren, who says that "if we provide programming and audio product that people really want, there will always be a market and a way to profit from providing it." Even if radio does eventually die as a source of commercial income in the United States, Yoder has faith that the medium will always exist as the voice of the people. "Internet access is easy to restrict, and newspapers, magazines, and zines can be destroyed, but radio can pass any boundary for hundreds or thousands of miles," he says. "It's unstoppable."
Ken Mellgren manager of affiliate relations for AP All News Radio.
Dean Sakai station resource manager for ElectricVillage.
Christopher Fox director of Internet services for KSJO/KUFX/KBAY.
David Williams director of engineering for San Francisco Bay area ARS stations.
Andrew Yoder author of Pirate Radio: The Incredible Saga of America's Underground, Illegal Broadcasters.
