Most Apple observers weren't surprised to see the company say farewell to CEO Gil Amelio and longtime executive Ellen Hancock. Few expected it to happen so soon. And no one - including Apple, it seems - wants to say when and how all this turmoil could lead Apple to a period of prosperity.
Apple's depressed stock price - which hit a 12-year low of $13 a share last week - might have sped up Amelio's ouster, but analysts suspect that Fred Anderson, the CFO who was named acting CEO on Wednesday, may have also helped spark the ouster.
Pieter Hartsook, a Mac industry analyst who served Apple as a vice president through April of this year, said Amelio had been "disengaged" from Apple's strategic direction for some time, but added that he had expected the former National Semiconductor chief to stick around for a few more months.
The timing could also add some short-term turbulence to Apple's problems. "Replacing the chief executive will disrupt Apple, and cause them to lose some of their focus," said Hartsook. "The people that are staying need to think about replacing him and running the company, in addition to getting the products out."
Companies that market software for the Mac platform didn't seem shaken by the departures either, but reiterated their loyalty to Mac OS users. "We're rooting for Apple," a Macromedia spokeswoman said. "They're a great company, and we're dedicated to our Mac customers. The customers are what's important to us."
At Adobe, where revenue from design applications sold for the Mac platform has dropped from 80 percent in 1994 to 50 percent today, president Charles Geschke said that Mac users are not ready to give up on the company. "I think from our point of view, our customers are incredibly loyal to the Mac platform, so we want to make those customers feel supported in that decision," he said. "The challenge that Gil undertook was a really tough job, and I suspect they want to put more and more horsepower in the [CEO's] role."
Even arch-rival Microsoft had words of encouragement - however tepid - for Apple in its latest moment of crisis. "It's clearly an unsettling time for Apple and we certainly wish them the best in solving their issues," a spokesman said.
One of the key tasks ahead for Apple and its future CEO is to recapture the magic Apple represented to many users during the 1980s. "They haven't been capturing anybody's hearts or minds," said Tom Rhinelander, an analyst with Forrester Research. "They basically have just made a ton of mistakes, especially the acquisition of NeXT, which is not going to do much for them, and they've also lost a lot of the magic."
No short list has yet emerged of candidates for Amelio's successor, but some qualifications seem clear. Apple said it's looking for a consumer-oriented chief, and others feel a dynamic leader with the status of Oracle chief Larry Ellison or Sun CEO Scott McNealy would be necessary. "The Ellisons and the McNealys are at least offering up different visions of the future," he said. "Apple needs someone like that, who has an idea."
It also needs someone who is willing to take on a position that has proven a hot and uncomfortable place for others; someone who can do what Amelio, John Sculley, and Michael Spindler couldn't; someone who has what it takes to turn Apple's finances and fortunes around.
Or as Hartsook puts it, "Somebody with a pretty good ego."
