For the Federal Communications Commission, broadcasters, and TV manufacturers, this is supposed to be Digital-TV Showdown Week. Many big questions about the future of the medium in the United States are supposed to be answered. The biggest: How many people will get to receive digital signals within the next couple of years?
After months of brawling with the broadcasters, the commission is widely expected to take action on digital-TV rules - issues such as channel assignments and public-service requirements as well as a rollout schedule - at its meeting Thursday. But as of Monday, digital TV was absent from the meeting agenda.
Behind the scenes, broadcasters are fighting for as much flexibility as possible in the rollout schedule. FCC Chairman Reed Hundt, who controls the agenda, is trying to wring the most aggressive schedule possible out of the broadcasters. The broadcasters are trying to outflank Hundt by working through Commissioner Susan Ness for a more flexible timetable. Billions of dollars are at stake for the broadcast industry (seeking to control expenses while maintaining market share), for the government (in a hurry to make the switch so that stations' analog frequencies can be auctioned), and manufacturers (who want to go to market with the new boxes by Christmas '98).
The battle has intensified over the past month. Broadcasters ridiculed Hundt's proposal that every network-owned station in the nation's 10 biggest markets go digital in 12 to 18 months. Unwilling to commit themselves to any firm schedule, the broadcasters said the need to get new facilities in place would mean that it would take them as long as six years to be sending digital signals to the masses.
Speaking 18 March at the National Cable Television Association convention in New Orleans, Hundt needled the broadcasters by telling cable operators they were in a position to grab a bigger share of the national television franchise by aggressively switching to digital.
The National Association of Broadcasters responded the same week: Its members were ready to adopt a timetable that would require a total of 45 stations in the top 29 markets to provide digital broadcasts 18 to 24 months after receiving their licenses. Last week, they improved on that offer: Digital telecasts could begin in the top 10 markets within 18 months.
Based on this, Hundt's minions have been declaring victory - and refusing to say whether the digital-TV item will make the 3 April agenda. Being coy about whether the item will make the next agenda has been one of Hundt's most potent tools throughout the talks.
In a snub to Hundt, the broadcasters have been dealing primarily with Ness' office, making exclusive presentations and filtering their proposals through her to the other commissioners, including Hundt.
But one broadcast source close to the discussions said on the condition of anonymity last week: "We're basically trying to make Ness happy. Nothing's ever going to make Hundt happy. We could roll this whole thing out in six weeks and he'd still be bitching."
Broadcasters figure that they have allies in the other two FCC commissioners, Rachelle Chong and James Quello. Both have said they favor a voluntary digital TV rollout schedule. Hundt and Ness, have pushed for a mandatory rollout. If broadcasters can sway Ness to agree to even a partially voluntary schedule, they believe they will have negated Hundt's vote by brokering a 3-1 commission. One broadcast source calls Ness "the pivotal vote."
