There was a lot of buzz last week about a recently released study from Zona Research. They took a close look at a variety of Web sites and determined, not surprisingly, that Microsoft's Internet Explorer is - in the words of a breathless Microsoft press release - the "world's fastest-growing browser."
Well, of course it is. Internet Explorer is easily as good as Netscape's Navigator, and in many ways better. Netscape essentially had no competition whatsoever, and Microsoft simply stepped in. It wasn't terribly difficult to forecast that Navigator wouldn't command a 90 percent market share forever. As devotees of the Macintosh will loudly attest, there is always room for an alternative.
But, of course, that's not where the real story is here. As Web site developers and designers, we have a keen interest in the market penetration of new browsers, especially when those new browsers offer features we're eager to exploit.
It's a tough game to play. You don't want to use a new technology on your site before it's mature enough to be trusted. At the same time, you don't want to play so conservatively that you're the last site to move on to the Next Big Thing.
But how do you know for sure? Once again, you need to look at the numbers. As Netscape and Microsoft battle it out percentage point by percentage point, we seem to be lacking a sense of history. By examining the way the browsing public reacted to past releases, we should be able to make assumptions about future ones, right?
Probably. If you look at the statistics kept by sites such as WebTrends, you can see just how quickly a new browser can reach critical mass. With Navigator, for example, each new release has taken almost exactly six months to gain full penetration. As version 1.0 faded out, version 2.0 peaked. Six months later, the same thing happened with version 3.0. The new Communicator release will most likely do the same, assuming Netscape doesn't do something drastically wrong.
Microsoft, on the other hand, could very well rock the boat. With control of the world's dominant operating system and the associated ability to bundle their browser, we may very well see a spike in user acceptance. Add that to the desktop integration, and the deck is truly stacked in Microsoft's favor.
It's important to watch the numbers game as you plan your pages. Pay attention to where we're going, but don't forget where we've been.
