There are a certain number of obligatory duties when you're a columnist. Getting your work in each week before deadline, writing with some semblance of coherence, and, of course, writing the "predictions for next year" column. So let's get on with it.
Browser wars
The past 12 months may have been the year Microsoft finally caught up. Internet Explorer matches Netscape Navigator feature for feature, and surpasses it in crucial areas like Java performance and cascading stylesheet support. But that's old news. Most Web surfers expected 4.0 betas by the end of '96, but it was not to be. We can probably expect those betas shortly after the holidays, and then watch as they leapfrog over each other for the remainder of the quarter. Who will be ahead in the end? With control of the desktop, Microsoft will most likely have the hands-down technological lead, but I don't expect Netscape's market share to drop much below 60 percent for quite a while.
ActiveX
We've seen lots of buzz the past few months about ActiveX. Its lack of cross-platform compatibility and superiority to Netscape's plug-in architecture are fun to debate ad nauseam, but the security issues are just too scary to ignore. Just as Netscape's awful interface for downloading, installing, and managing plug-ins made that hype-ridden technology insignificant, expect to see the ridiculous reliance on code-signing-as-security-model to have the same effect on ActiveX everywhere but the intranet.
WebTV
The engineers and interface designers at WebTV have done a remarkable job translating the Web to a television screen. We've used it, and we like it ... a lot. I'm not sure it will take off quite like they're expecting, however - at least not this Christmas season. The US$350 price point is still a bit steep for what the general public considers a videogame-like device. And to be honest, most people in the Real World still don't see a lot of value in the Web beyond URLs in beer commercials. What troubles me is the long list of HTML extensions the WebTV folks have created, as well as their request to "keep your pages simple because TV viewers aren't used to focusing on more than one thing at a time." I hope WebTV brings the Web to the masses, but I hope the masses don't destroy the Web.
Push media
PointCast is making deals with Microsoft, and breaking deals with Netscape. Marimba is making deals with everyone. BackWeb, Intermind, IFusion, and every other little Web company are desperately trying to get people to subscribe to their versions of the new Push Metaphor™. Who will win? I don't care. I just want the content I like to come to me every day without me having to remember to go get it. That's the whole point, right?
Have a happy new year.
