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A skin cancer epidemic in the next century will probably be averted thanks to an international accord to phase out ozone-damaging industrial chemicals, Dutch researchers say.
Strict protocols on CFCs and other ozone-depleting chemicals adopted under the 1992 Copenhagen agreement will drastically reduce the risk of skin cancer, researchers at the Institute of Public Health in the Netherlands report in this week's issue of Nature.
If there were no restrictions on ozone-depleting halocarbon emissions, "skin-cancer risks could quadruple by the year 2100," researchers say.
Using a model that follows each link in the chain of risks triggered by ozone depletion to evaluate the consequences of chemical bans proposed under the 1985 Vienna Convention, the 1987 Montreal Protocol, and the Copenhagen Amendments, the researchers found that only the stricter protocols adopted in Copenhagen would avert a health crisis. Even the much-heralded CFC bans achieved in Montreal by then-President Ronald Reagan and other leaders could mean "a doubled risk of skin cancer by 2100," the study says.
