To Martin Hash, the blur between reality and illusion isn't a problem - it's an addiction.
__ Martin Hash is the visionary behind Hash Inc., developers of Animation: Master, a software package that has grabbed about half the market for shrink-wrapped 3-D character animation programs. Hash's focus on character first caught the eye of game developers and filmmakers - now the wired world is developing a taste for immersive experiences filled with interesting characters. At Hewlett-Packard, Hash was responsible for much of the coding in DeskJet printers. Then in 1987, he headed for his garage to develop his Great Idea: splines (curved lines) and patches (curved surfaces) that simplify 3-D models, making character animation far more doable. He introduced the first spline/patch system for the Amiga in 1989. Three years later, he released Will Vinton's Playmation, the first package for Windows. Now Hash sees a big market hatching on the Net - attracting the same passive slouchers who soak up TV.
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By Daryll Fogal
Wired: Computers have largely displaced traditional model builders, f/x houses, and set designers in Hollywood. What will computer animation take over next?
Hash
: Passive forms of entertainment, such as movies, will continue to thrive, but look to cyberspace for the new computer animation revolution. Only one person in 10,000 will purchase a US$199 animation program, but anyone will pay a nickel for five minutes of entertainment. Because of cyberspace, 3-D character animation will become a multibillion-dollar market.
What will be the initial draw?
At first, the responsiveness and adventure of cyberspace will be the big draw. Within the year, the Net-wide, real-time cyberspace implementations will come online. The ultimate goal is believable movement and photo-realistic rendering. You'll see the first simulations that qualify as a movie remake within five years.
And then?
Because cyberspace has the penurious demand of real-time rendering and animation, the industry will forgo photo-realism for now, but soon - within a decade - cyberspace will be occupied by CG characters that are indistinguishable from real people.
Does the ability to accurately mimic reality and people pose any danger?
Physical danger? No. Moral danger? Depends on your interpretation of morality. Psychological danger? You betcha! Some individuals will squelch their own personalities for those of their adopted personas. Addictive behavior that prevents them from assuming real-world responsibilities must be expected and planned for. When people start attaching arcane appliances to their private members so they don't have to leave the glass teat to go to the bathroom - that will frighten me.
What about people's perceptions of reality?
The old saying "I'll believe it when I see it" will fall out of use. People of the next decade will become so skeptical that they won't believe anything without corroborating evidence. There will be a few spectacular cases where the masses are fooled, but that will cure itself fast.
Will animation democratize video production?
There will be a certain amount of political expression in cyberspace, but primarily cyberspace will evolve into a fantasyland for people with no life. It will be for those of us who always wanted to be whisked into the land of The Hobbit, with all of the trappings but less of the make-believe.
What about economics and culture?
In the macroeconomic sense, rich countries will use the Net as entertainment, while developing countries will not even know it's there. Internally, cyberspace will cause an even greater stratification of civilization, but it won't be along social-economic boundaries. Instead, it will attract those people in search of adventure and new opportunities, and their opposite, those who are cripplingly shy. People with an otherwise dull, mundane, unexceptional life could become whoever they want to be in the anonymity of Net culture. It's amazing how the brittle mantle of civility is shattered if even the thinnest veil of anonymity is provided. Nonparticipants will become increasingly belligerent. Like secret societies and mysterious religions, Net users will generate fear and suspicion among some political circles.
The cyberspace you describe sounds like it's full of people disconnected from reality.
One needs only to examine the phenomenal success of soap operas and role-playing games to know that a huge market exists. Cyberspace will attract the escapist crowd.
What will the cyberspace revolution do to the broadcast networks and television producers?
Cyberspace is usually perceived as an interactive environment with role playing attributes, but passive entertainment will still predominate because most people are basically lazy. Established broadcasters have money and vision, albeit shortsighted. Current forms of passive, mindless entertainment will continue, but where CG makes financial sense, they will use it. For example, the success of a bold, adventurous avatar in cyberspace will attract the attention of timid spectators who choose to experience the Net vicariously. These famous avatars may charge a small fee or be part of network programming - essentially making a living as professional cybernauts.
So you don't see a group of five creative people sitting down and making a weekly series for download, feeding into the existing passive viewing market?
I see five creative people building more than a single, encapsulated, passive story line. When you watch a great movie, one that you're truly absorbed into, you don't want it to end, and when it's over, you're sad. Movie toys are so successful because people try to extend their connection to the story. In cyberspace, that initial story is a "getting started" manual into a continuing adventure. Users can experience and associate with the story and characters indefinitely. Those five creative people will have their hands full playing God, trying to keep the interactive experience new and ever evolving. They have the opportunity to create more than simply 22 weekly episodes - they can offer a "life."
