Reality Check - The Future of Libraries
VR in Libraries
Rather than cracking a library book to view the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel, wouldn't you prefer to immerse yourself in a VR model of the Vatican? Our experts predict that virtual reality gear will slowly be added to library collections just as, Zich points out, other media like videotapes, CDs, and CD-ROMs have become part of library resources during the last few years. Lynch thinks VR is likely to appear first in museums and university art or architecture libraries. Garcia-Molina agrees that the cost of VR equipment is still too high to be practical in a library setting. "The videogame arcade next to the library will definitely have 3-D VR stuff," he says, "but not the library - at least not very soon."
Half of the Library of Congress Is Digitized
The Library of Congress's National Digital Library Program intends to have 5 million documents digitized by 2000. "The single most important value of digitization is that it allows us to make major portions of our collection available to the entire country" via CD-ROMs and online access, Zich says. With more than 108 million items in the library's collection and an average growth rate of 2 to 4 percent a year, the program has quite a bit of scanning to do. Poisson points out that the progress is "as much a question of funding, staffing, and copyright as it is of technology."
First Virtual Large Library
While the Gutenberg Project is making thousands of public-domain texts available electronically, our experts agree that public libraries will not be closing their doors in favor of a completely online presence. The first large library to go strictly virtual may be a university or specialized facility that serves a geographically scattered community. "A good candidate would be a multinational corporation's library that people use around the clock," Lynch says. For a public library to make the conversion, Poisson notes, the people it serves need universal online access. Besides, a collection of books does not necessarily constitute a library. Libraries, says Dowlin, are also "socialization facilities, communication facilities, and protected public spaces - even icons of the community."
Free Net Access in Public Libraries
Most of our experts predict that in 10 years, almost all public libraries will provide free access to the most eclectic information dump in the world - the Internet. Web browsing, gopher, and telnet can satisfy most research needs without requiring the library to give every patron e-mail. On the other hand, Lynch calls free Net access in public libraries a passing fad. "Most libraries will offer Net connections for a fee as a convenience, just as they have pay phones and copy machines," he says.
Ken Dowlin
City librarian of San Francisco, author, The Electronic Library: The Promise and the Process
Hector Garcia-Molina
Principal investigator for the Stanford Digital Library Project, Stanford University
Clifford Lynch
Director of library automation, University of California
Ellen Poisson
Assistant director for electronic resources at The New York Public Library's Science, Industry and Business Library
Bob Zich
Director of electronic programs, Library of Congress
