Hype List
1. 3-D Chips for PCs
Like competitive younger brothers, PCs are constantly striving to prove they can do anything a workstation can. It's a measure of their success that nowadays not much distinguishes an SGI workstation from a Pentium PC – except graphics capability. Now even this may change. The hot trend is 3-D accelerators: chips that give PCs the graphics horsepower of workstations. But while analysts talk about CAD and VRML, the real force driving 3-D accelerators is videogames. That means PCs will soon be able to do fast 3-D, but not workstation-accurate 3-D.
2. Web TV
If you need further evidence that browsing the Web is intellectually equivalent to channel surfing, look at the rush to combine the Web and TV. In September, Philips introduced a system that combines a CD-i player and a 14.4-Kbps modem so that viewers can check out www.penthousemag.com between Baywatch reruns. Compaq and Fisher-Price have announced plans to develop a TV multimedia system. Meanwhile, Apple still plugs away on Pippin, essentially a Web-compatible set-top box. Maybe interactive media won't bury TV after all.
This Month's Overhyped Memes Hype Level Position Last Month Expected Lifetime
3-D Chips for PCs | Embryonic meme | Embryonic meme | 6 months
Web TV | Embryonic meme | Embryonic meme | 12 months
Computer Telephony | Meme on the rise | Meme on the rise | 12 months
Data Mining | Meme on the rise | Embryonic meme | 3 months
Everything as Ecology | Mass-media meme | Meme on the rise | 3 months
3. Computer Telephony
Computer telephony has long been stymied by the lack of a standardized programming interface. But Windows 95's telephony application programming interface effectively ends the standards battle. Now we just need to figure out why telephones should merge with computers in the first place. True, the combination could help telemarketers. But for most of us, it's as useful as a computerized toaster.
4. Data Mining
"Hit-and-run" consulting consists of latching onto the newest buzzword, promoting it as the path to salvation, and then, three months later when its vapidity has been exposed, moving on. The perfect example right now is data mining. It's an evocative name used to dress up a blindingly obvious concept. The key idea – hold on to your hats – is to use the information stored in corporate databases to learn more about customer needs and preferences.
5. Everything as Ecology
In the late 19th century, we likened everything, including nature and the economy, to a steam-powered machine. In the late 20th century, everything looks like an ecology. Neo-Luddites call this evidence of our scientific hubris. That's foolish: just as our scientific understanding gets better, so do our metaphors. As Bruce Sterling points out, chaos theory has become the sexiest excuse for laziness ever. Let's hope that instead of seeing an ecology as a complex system that can't be controlled, we see it as something that needs to be analyzed with care and respect.
– Steve G. Steinberg (hype-list@wired.com)
