Hype List
1. Geek Extinction
Don't look now, but the geek population is dwindling. Sure, part of the problem is that the definition of geek has been diluted. If Sandra Bullock is a geek, what does that make Bill Gates? But there's also a deeper reason. When geekhood becomes popular, true geeks move on. Probably the best place to detect this geek disappearance is on college campuses. Students at the University of California, Santa Cruz, for example, report no new geek houses. The question is, What will geeks become?
2. Computer Telephony
Remember convergence? It was last year's grand meme: computers, TVs, and phones were all going to meld together into a single über device. Surprise: it didn't happen. Instead, categories multiplied with PDAs, gaming consoles, dueling HDTV standards, and PCS phones. But a new, lite version of the convergence meme is back. It's called computer telephony. Its advocates paint a world where telephones have Windows 95 interfaces, voicemail converts into e-mail, and caller-ID ties into a database. In short, it's a world where the phone is difficult to use.
Hype Level Level Last Month Expected Lifetime
| Geek Extinction| Embryonic meme | Embryonic | 9 months
| Computer Telephony| Meme on the rise | Meme on the | 18 months
| Surfing Metaphors| Meme on the rise | Mass-media meme | 6 months
| Death of Newsgroups| Meme on the rise | Embryonic meme | 4 months
| ADSL| Embryonic meme | Embryonic meme | 4 months
3. Surfing Metaphors
The phrase "surfing the Net" has finally become passé. Modem ads no longer feature a breaking wave. Just as I breathed a sigh of relief, a modified version appeared: "surfing change." You no longer plan for change – you surf it. OK, technological trends are dynamic. But you don't go anywhere when you surf: you race toward shore, you paddle back. Repeat until tired. Let's hope for a new metaphor that involves some forward motion: kayaking, anyone?
4. Death of Newsgroups
Prophesies for Usenet's demise are becoming increasingly vocal. More and more net.gods have publicly announced their decision to retreat to the confines of private mailing lists. Many newcomers to the Net are even completely unaware of Usenet, thanks to Netscape's lame newsgroup interface. Perhaps when Usenet is finally abandoned, a new community will rise up to homestead on the deserted virtual space.
5. ADSL
If you think the telephone companies have the slightest idea where the digital revolution is headed, take a look at their latest technology: Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line. Sure, ADSL pumps 6 Mbps over a phone line. But it's a hack, a stopgap solution made from duct tape and bailing wire. ADSL is asymmetrical, prone to noise, and won't scale to higher speeds. Maybe the cable companies – who have at least laid coaxial cable – will win after all.
– Steve G. Steinberg (hype-list@wired.com)
