Reality Check
The Future of Telecommuting By the end of this year, 9.2 million Americans will call themselves telecommuters – employees who use networked computers and cellular telephones to work outside the traditional office – according to a recent study by Link Resources Corp. Telecommuting can increase productivity and lower overhead costs, but running a "virtual office" raises important questions about decentralized management, worker responsibility, and loneliness for employees who have been cut loose from familiar work environments. Yet emerging technologies will make it easier to stay connected even as we move away from our burlap cubicles. Wired asked five experts to look at the future of telecommuting.
One-Fifth US Workers are Telecommuters Universal Desktop Videoconferencing Global Wireless Telephone Number Fortune 500 "Virtual Corporation
Franklin D. Becker | 2005 | 2005 | 1998 | never
Joe Carter | 1999 | 1998 | 2010 | 1999
N. Fredric Crandall | 2010 | 2005 | 1998 | 2000
Tom Newhouse | 1998 | 2010 | 2000 | unlikely
Van Romine | 2000 | 1997 | 1998 | 1997
Bottom Line | 2003 | 2003 | 2001 | 1999
Universal Desktop Videoconferencing
Even as remote work grows in popularity, desktop full-motion videoconferencing remains beyond the reach of most telecommuters. Thin pipes and high cost are preventing the "virtual water cooler" from being bundled, like CD-ROMs and modems, with business-use computers. "When the cost of desktop videoconferencing falls below US$500 and when ordering ISDN is as easy as getting a burger at the local diner, things will start to shift," says Romine. But by then, Carter believes, "low bandwidth peer-to-peer networking, shared applications, and shared workspace tools that don't require video" may already fulfill most collaborative needs.
Global Wireless Telephone Number
As global business increases, our experts think global wireless communication will expand as well. While most businesspeople don't need to talk on the phone while climbing the Himalayas, Newhouse thinks hand-held telephones that allow for global roaming will be useful in "the 24-hour world of finance and market analysis, where minutes mean millions. The same can be true for political organizations." But, according to Carter, international business politics may put personal satellite telephones on hold. "The complexities of crossing national borders and dealing with other countries' telecommunication monopolies are difficult to work out," he says.
Fortune 500 "Virtual Corporation
Most of our experts agree that the first Fortune 500 "virtual corporation" – a company without a traditional central headquarters – will still occupy some physical real estate. Becker predicts that large virtual corporations will maintain multi-use hubs combining meeting and communication centers, employee lounges, and classroom space for teaching new skills to a geographically dispersed work force.
On the other hand, Newhouse believes "widely varied human personalities and job skill types" will keep at least half of a company's employees in a main office. "The headquarters," he says, "will be wherever the CEO is."
One-Fifth US Workers are Telecommuters
Our experts predict the number of telecommuters will triple in the next 15 years to 20 percent of the US work force, driven by stricter air-quality regulations, improved communications networks, and rising demand for adaptability in the business world. However, Crandall warns that the work-at-home route can lead to a "virtual dead end" of employee isolation and bureaucratic ineffectiveness. "The idea is to get people into the field so they can be more responsive to customer requirements," he says, "rather than trying to adapt to individual lifestyles." Becker adds that "a variety of easily accessed telework centers are likely to function at least as well or better than a home office."
Franklin D. Becker
director, international workplace studies program, Cornell University; partner, @Work Consulting Group
Joe Carter
managing director, Andersen Consulting Center for Strategic Technology
N. Fredric Crandall
PhD; founding partner, The Center for Workforce Effectiveness Inc.
Tom Newhouse
owner/principal, Thomas J. Newhouse-Design, an industrial-design firm working primarily in the areas of office furniture and major appliances
Van Romine
director, Institute for Telework
