Reality Check
The Future of Airplanes Commercial aerospace technology hasn't undergone a revolution since Sir Frank Whittle patented the jet engine 65 years ago. But engineers continue to dream. Right now, aerospace experts are developing the technology necessary for environmentally friendly supersonic planes that fly at Mach 2.4 (1,585 mph) and superjumbo jets that provide the amenities of ocean liners. Of course, whether these new airplanes will ever fly depends more on economic viability than on engineering ingenuity. With that in mind, Wired asked several aerospace experts to predict when certain emerging airplane technologies will take off.
Superjumbo Jet Green Supersonic 10 Percent Premium for Supersonic Artificial Cockpit Vision Hypersonic Space Plane
Derfchin | 2010 | 2025 | 2020 | 2015 | 2030
Grey | ? | 2007 | 2010 | 2005 | 2020
McDonnell Douglas | 2012 | 2005 | 2005 | 2002 | 2012
Scott | 2015 | 2015 | 2025 | 2015 | 2050
Williams | unlikely | 2005 | 2010 | 2008 | 2025
Bottom Line | 2013 | 2011 | 2014 | 2009 | 2027
David Pescovitz
<p><rjumbo Jet:</stording to several of our experts, a superjumbo airliner that holds 800 passengers will be in trans-Pacific operation within the next 20 years. McDonnell Douglas's Mark Page notes there are at least 22 international airports with the infrastructure already in place to handle these big birds. "It will help air-traffic congestion and mop up a lot of airport traffic," he says. On the other hand, Williams points out that two trips of a supersonic plane would haul the same number of passengers as a superjumbo airliner in the same amount of time. He thinks stretch versions of the 747 – with extensions installed in the body – are more likely than a new superjumbo jet. <strn Supersonic:</stt of our experts agree that before the "Son of Concorde" gets off the ground, an ozone-friendlier supersonic engine must be built. "Emissions standards will become stricter in the next century, just like what occurred with airline noise in the 1990s," Derchin says. Several of our experts note that NASA's current engine-emission goal is 5 grams of nitrogen oxide per kilogram of fuel burned. While Scott is optimistic about the feasibility of this research, she questions whether even the potentially minor "cumulative impact of a supersonic fleet on the atmosphere would be acceptable to US or European regulatory bodies." <strercent Premium for Supersonic:</stay, a one-way trip from New York to London on the Concorde costs over US$4,000. But our experts foresee only a 10 percent premium charge for a ride on one of the next-generation supersonic airliners. Several of those polled predict that rapid growth in trans-Pacific travel will create a large market for supersonic transport, thus driving prices down. After all, supersonic planes will be able to get you from LA to Tokyo in just over four hours. Just as important, new supersonic planes will carry 300 passengers with some cargo (as opposed to the Concorde's 100 passengers and no cargo). <strficial Cockpit Vision:</stause the Concorde takes off and lands at a steep incline, the plane's distinctive drooped nose is necessary for pilots to see the ground. But it also adds 6,000 pounds to the vehicle. That's why our experts think artificial cockpit vision, which replaces the cockpit window with a monitor displaying computer-generated video, is imminent. The system would combine real-time video with radar and infrared imaging. "If you can get this thing to fly, you could have all-weather vision, collision-avoidance technology, and other awareness features," Scott says. "But it has to work all the time." <strrsonic Space Plane:</st1986, President Reagan raved about how NASA's research into a hypersonic National Aerospace Plane would lead to a new "Orient Express," shuttling passengers from Washington, DC, to Tokyo in two hours. Several of our experts agree that the technology may be within our grasp to design a hypersonic space plane that travels faster than 3,300 mph, but finding the money and motivation to build it will be more difficult. "The world is too small," Williams says. "You'd spend all your time accelerating and decelerating to go halfway around the world. Maybe it would make sense if you're operating on Jupiter."</p>
<ity Checkers</str Derchin</st
Aine and aerospace analyst, Tiger Management</p>
<y Grey</st
Pdirector of aerospace and science policy, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics</p>
<nnell Douglas Corporation</st
Be Bunin, director of high-speed civil transport program;</p>
Gge Orton, program manager of Hypersonics Center of Excellence, Phantom Works;</p>
MPage, technical program manager of blended-wing-body</p>
<y Scott</st*
Tsportation analyst, Office of Technology Assessment, US Congress</p>
<s J. Williams</st
Dctor of high-speed research division, NASA</p>
<ly Scott's opinions are her own and are not those of the OTA or its Technology Assessment Board.</em
