Reality Check
The Future of Food
A family of four in the United States spends almost US$5,000 each year at the grocery, according to the Food Marketing Institute. That money trickles through an industry that is undergoing radical change. The food industry is being pushed by an ever-expanding world population and pulled by new technologies. While the future of food won't be the cannibalism of Soylent Green or genetic mutants of Attack of the Killer Tomatoes, advances in farming and biotechnology are bringing new innovations closer to our refrigerators. Hungry for answers about the next millennium's dinner, Wired asked five experts to predict when drastic changes within the four food groups may occur.
David Pescovitz
Aquaculture
Our experts feel that an increase in aquaculture, the breeding of fish in undersea cages or huge land-based tanks, is unavoidable. "The exhaustion of the wild fish population will force ownership as the only way to control supply," Martin says. El-Begearmi agrees, pointing to the recent declines in cod, haddock, and salmon ocean harvests. And he speculates that an FDA regulation protecting consumers from harmful bacteria in seafood may help quicken the growth of aquaculture.
Superpreservative
An all-purpose superpreservative is a fantasy, according to our experts. Kroger doesn't believe there ever will be a solution to this "multifactorial problem that includes wilting, souring by bacteria, and many other processes." But experts like El-Begearmi and Marrone think biotechnology will eventually help in preventing spoilage, and Marrone mentions the possibility of transferring "a preservative gene from one organism into plants."
Most US Produce Grown Hydroponically
Indoor hydroponic gardening allows crops to be grown anywhere year-round by using a nutrient-rich water bath rather than soil. Kroger, who notes that he's "been eating hydroponic lettuce for 20 years," predicts the building of large-scale hydroponic "skyscrapers" in the next century as suburbia spreads further into farmland. McCamant, however, thinks hydroponics will never take off on a large scale because "it's always going to be cheaper to use the nutrients that are already in the ground."
Food Tablet
Kroger compares food tablets to baby formula and the liquid nutrients used to keep comatose patients alive. He claims, tongue-in-cheek, that he could patent such a product next year. More seriously, he agrees with our experts who think that while science might be ready for food tablets, our culture isn't. According to McCamant, although a tablet might be useful for emergencies, "We're headed the other way in this society, with people cooking, eating out, and enjoying food more."
Most US Produce Genetically Engineered
The experts agree that the market for genetically engineered produce will increase as the public's fears are eased by first efforts like the "Flavr Savr" tomato. According to Martin, "Long shelf life will revolutionize produce economics, and good-tasting produce will win consumers." And McCamant thinks genetic techniques will allow crops to be engineered for "insect and herbicide resistance." But Kroger, looking back to traditional plant breeding for improved yield and heartiness, argues that most produce already is genetically engineered in some way.
Mahmoud El-Begearmi PhD, nutrition and food safety specialist, University of Maine Cooperative Extension
Manfred Kroger PhD, professor of food science, Pennsylvania State University
Pam Marrone business unit head, Noveo Nordisk Entotech
Ellen Martin science communications, DNA Plant Technology
Jim McCamant editor, AgBiotech Stock Letter
