Hype List
1. Young multimedia stars After reading the 100th media hymn to these Renaissance geniuses, I began to believe we live in a country where every multimedia developer is young and shockingly hip. Between surfing Bali, lunching Hollywood, and modeling Gaultier, they find time to almost single-handedly create not only a revolutionary art form, but a billion-dollar industry. However, some astute research revealed that the key industry figures are old and graying and, in fact, only the programmers Net surf.
2. Videophones The videophone is a shining example of technology hype. It was invented for the sole purpose of showing off a clever design concept. Despite repeated failures over the last 25 years, despite convincing sociological reasons why no one wants a videophone, engineers continue to develop new, improved versions. Two research fronts exist today: In the US, computer companies such as AT&T, Intel, and Sun are developing hardware that allows standard computers to be used as videophones. And in Japan, consumer giants like Sharp and Hitachi are testing devices that allow camcorders to deliver images over a phone line. The technological achievements coming out of both camps are impressive – but misguided.
Current Position Months Position Last Month on List
Young multimedia stars 1 - 1 Videophones 2 - 1 Death of online services 3 - 1 Return of VR 4 1 3 Robotics 5 4 2
3. Death of online services The history of US technology is the history of a recurring US dream: new inventions will empower the individual more than the corporation. Despite numerous events to disprove it, the dream has not died. A current variant is the prediction that the anarchic Internet will turn people into media makers and kill off more restrictive commercial services like America Online and CompuServe. This prediction has two flaws. First, in a society satisfied by Baywatch reruns, few people will produce or consume the amateur media. Second, no matter how nice the Web viewer, the unstructured Internet will always be much harder to use than an online service.
4. Return of VR Apple's announcement of QuickTime VR, a system extension that allows 3-D scenes to be zoomed and panned, was marked by a headline that read, "VR without all the prohibitive hardware." An amazing deflation of expectations has occurred here. Three years ago, VR meant being able to play and create in an absorbing, synthetic environment; today, it means 3-D animation. Watch for an escalation of VR hype as Nintendo's new, rather ambitiously named "Project Reality" gaming system gets closer to release in the second half of 1995.
5. Robotics There was something pitiful about watching Dante, the US$1.7 million robot developed by NASA and Carnegie-Mellon, slip in a pool of mud. This was definitely not the giant step for robotics some had hoped. True, robotics is a hard problem; true, the public has unrealistic expectations. Nevertheless, progress in robotics has been exceedingly slow. Part of the problem is poorly focused research – other than the shrinking military, no one seems to have a clear idea what robots are for. Plus, NASA's involvement almost guarantees that progress will be slow and expensive. Let's just decide on what we want and turn the problem over to Sony.
– Steve G. Steinberg (hype-list@wired.com)
