Hype List
1. Return of VR
Virtual reality is the hula hoop of high technology, exploding on the scene every few years only to be destroyed by its own hype. Three years ago, articles describing VR as the most important invention since fire and portraying Jaron Lanier as the new Thomas Edison were commonplace. However, as so-called VR systems hit the arcades and shopping malls, people quickly discovered that viewing fuzzy polygons resembles a bad hangover more than it does a new kind of LSD. But I predict a revival. In the last month a resurgence of interest in VR has accompanied significant improvements in 3-D graphics technology. Welcome back to the hype list, VR.
2. "Death" of Clipper
Some computer and privacy advocates have seized on the Clinton administration's recent hints of compromise on the Clipper Chip as a victory - an example of the executive branch bowing to the almighty wrath of the Net. But others see Al Gore's statements as meaningless - conceding little and avoiding the important issues. Some of these latter activists are now accusing the Electronic Frontier Foundation (which was quick to claim victory) of becoming, in The Wall Street Journal's words, "an industry lobbying group" - interested in achieving only the short-term goals of Apple and AT&T. If the administration is smart, it will continue to hint at limited, and divisive, concessions.
Current Position Months Position Last Month on List
Return of VR 1 - 1 "Death" of Clipper 2 - 1 Post-Ambient 3 - 1 New Operating Systems 4 3 2 Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers 5 - 1
3. Post-Ambient
Most musical genres rapidly divide, mutating into a handful of different strains. Punk, for example, split into categories such as thrash, straightedge, oí. Ambient, however, may become the genre that expands to fill the universe. From the original warblings of Eno and Aphex Twin, ambient DJs now spin everything from ethnic chants to Schoenberg. Ambient has come to resemble The Face's facetious description, "anything remotely electronic that lasts longer than 10 minutes and has less than 80 beats per minute." Which, perhaps coincidentally, is also a good definition of Muzak.
4. New Operating Systems
The massive hype surrounding new operating systems is not surprising - after all the OS is the part of the computer that users deal with the most. What is surprising is how slow and plodding progress has been. Every three years, computer processing speeds double. In those same three years, operating systems barely change. Apple is still patching and duct-taping its 1984 operating system, Microsoft is playing catch-up, and Sun has actually managed to go backward. It's not that operating systems are all that hard to build - look at the excellent, public-domain Linux. The problem is that user expectations have been dulled by a decade of equally awful alternatives.
5. Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers
No segment of popular culture changes faster and more dramatically than TV programming for the elementary school set. Each generation demands the complete recapitulation of entertainment history. The current incarnation: the transition from the sweet-and-cloying Barney to the all-action, all-violence Power Rangers. An unholy melding of Ultraman and Masters of the Universe, Power Rangers represents a return to mid-'80s, over-the-top TV cartoons. But with its aggressively postmodern and relentlessly nonsensical plot lines, watch for rapid crossover to older audiences.
Steve G. Steinberg (hype-list@wired.com)
