Hype List
Processor wars
Steve Przybylski, an early RISC architect, once defined RISC as "any computer announced after 1985." RISC and CISC are no longer meaningful processor descriptions – the new RISC chips have large instructions sets (even string operations), and new CISC chips offer simplified instruction-set "kernels." Terms likes RISC and superscalar are the brightly colored baubles tossed out by advertisers that we pretend to understand as we buy what we would have anyway for price or software compatibility.
CORBA
The Common Object Request Broker Architecture is the most mature of the many object technology standards currently being discussed – and the most hyped. But the problem with object-oriented programming has always been that no one wants to use someone else's objects, because of special needs or lack of trust. This means CORBA, which standardizes how objects from different vendors should talk together, isn't terribly useful. An additional problem is that Microsoft has its own standard, OLE, which is only indirectly compatible with CORBA. What's clear is that in its attempt to make programming simple, object technology is sure to make it a lot more complex.
Current Position Months Position Last Month on List
Processor wars 1 2 2 COBRA 2 - 1 Intellegent Agents 3 - 1 ISDN 4 - 1 Surfing metaphor 5 - 1
Intelligent Agents
This concept last peaked in popularity after a promotional video from Apple. I blame its current resurgence on General Magic and its Telescript technology. The idea of an intelligent agent that can whisk away our tedious work is incredibly seductive. But it is also a dangerous idea to promote. In the 1980s, many database companies discovered that promoting a "natural-language interface" is the kiss of death because customers then expect too much. To connect your product with "intelligent agents" risks far greater customer disappointment.
ISDN
A year ago you smirked when you said ISDN. It was a classic example of a technology that offered too little too late and never lived up to its hype. But a number of RBOCs have begun to roll out ISDN service at extremely reasonable rates and this is wiping the smirk off most people's faces. Sure, ISDN isn't a very sexy technology anymore, but it works. Still, this could be just a momentary resurrection: NTT has been offering ISDN in Japan for some time with only limited success. In any case, ISDN should be taken by Asynchronous Transfer Mode proponents as a reminder of how long it can take to go from research to market.
Surfing metaphor
Everyone criticizes the information highway metaphor, but it is the surfing metaphor – from "surfing the Net" to the neoprene-and-wave ads in every computer design trade journal – that bugs me most. Sure, much of the industry is based in California, but how many valley engineers do you usually see in the lineup off Santa Cruz? It's not the attempt to appropriate another culture's cachet that disturbs me, it's the indication that most engineers would rather be hanging out at the beach than designing circuits. I've always wanted to believe the engineer rhetoric about it being the excitement, not the paycheck, that drives them.
Steve G. Steinberg
