Reality Check
Completion of the Human Genome Project
Boguski thinks completion is far off unless we discover cheaper and faster methods to sequence the three billion base pairs of the human genome. Robbins-Roth looks forward to "the real point of all this": figuring out "the biological function of the encoded proteins."
AIDS Vaccine
According to the World Health Organization, an estimated 14 million people worldwide are infected with the HIV virus. And that number is not getting any smaller. According to Sutherland, the major obstacle to a cure is that the virus that causes AIDS is comparable "to a chameleon." Robbins-Roth agrees that the virus mutates so often it's able to "hide from both vaccines and from drugs aimed at critical components." Lee, however, is optimistic that "a successful vaccine will be developed with attenuated viruses engineered by selectively inactivating viral genes responsible for the disease."
Universal Organ Donor Animal
Genetically engineered animals, probably pigs, whose organs may be transplanted into humans without rejection may solve the massive organ- donor shortage. Sutherland thinks we will have pigs with some human antigens in ten years, although "there will still be incompatibilities." But Boguski thinks that "apart from political action by animal rights organizations...universal donor animals will always be a very expensive therapy of benefit to a relatively small number of people."
Gene Therapy to Cure Cancer
Cancer caused more than 500,000 deaths in the United States alone last year, according to the National Cancer Institute. Sutherland predicts that it might be stopped only by combining gene and other therapies, like immunotherapy. Lee foresees "sophisticated approaches to deliver functional copies of tumor suppresser genes" following currently planned trials using immune modulators, including certain hormones, to "activate the immune response to tumors."
Human Cloning
Although many researchers think this is technically feasible, it's unlikely that you will soon run into the twin you never knew you had, if the ethics of the majority of scientists prevail. "Here is where we need the Luddites," Sutherland says.
Reality Checkers
Dr. Mark Boguski, MD, PhD, National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health. (His views are his opinions - not official statements by the US government or any of its agencies.) Frank Lee, PhD, molecular biologist; Cynthia Robbins-Roth, PhD, editor-in-chief of BioVenture Publishing Inc.; Dr. David E.R. Sutherland MD, PhD, professor of surgery and director of the Pancreas Transplant Program at the University of Minnesota.
