Reality Check
Operational US Space Station
Most everyone polled agrees that an international space station, like the controversial US-Russia space station, is more likely than an independent US station. Friedman thinks the station will be used for "preparing and evaluating human adaptability to long-duration missions." Ferris agrees that a US station is a "waste of time unless we go to Mars." Oberg, however, speculates that "diplomatic upheavals following Yeltsin's assassination will scuttle the (US-Russia) project."
Human on Mars
Ferris is looking to 2030 for a "hit-and-run" mission to Mars but 2044 "if it marks the establishment of a permanent colony." Oberg predicts that before we reach Mars we'll land on Phobos, one of the red planet's moons.
Solar Sail Propulsion
Picture a big umbrella (thousands of square acres in area) that collects the pressure of light for conversion into power for a space ship. Friedman looks to interplanetary commerce, meaning more regular journeys with "application payloads as well as science," to popularize the solar sail. Oberg predicts that solar sail propulsion experiments will be pioneered by the Russians but "there will never be a private 'regatta race,' sad to say."
Nuclear Thermal Rocket Propulsion
This is an oft-discussed launching system, but one Oberg and Friedman think could be outdated before it even sees the light of day or the dark of space. "By the time really serious interplanetary expeditions begin, more exotic and efficient technologies will be selected," Oberg says.
Contact With Extraterrestrial Intelligence
(Reception of signal or direct contact)
Both Morrison and Friedman emphasized that this event is impossible to predict. "Any guess is a statement of faith," Friedman says. Oberg speculates that by 2026 "the artificial origin of some already-noticed artifact will be generally accepted." Ferris thinks contact probably is not in the near future unless Congress reinstates SETI's (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) US$12.3 million budget.
Lou Friedman, executive director, Planetary Society; Timothy Ferris, science writer and professor at the University of California at Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism; David Morrison, chief of Space Science Division, NASA-Ames Research Center and science writer; James Oberg, space engineer and author.
