You've heard the Hype. We asked the Experts. Here's the real Timetable.
| Bringenberg | Britton | de Kerckhove | Schrage | Welsh ————————————————————————- Video | 1997 | 2000 | 1996 | 2005 | 1995 | Phones | | | | | | | | | | | | Fiber to | Never | 2010 | Never | 2001 | Never | the Home | | | | | | | | | | | | Flat-Rate | 1995 | Never | ? | 1998 | 1994-1999 | Phone Calls | | | | | | | | | | | | 100-MIPS | 1996 | 2015 | Never | 1996 | 1996-1997 | TV | | | | | | | | | | | | Movies On | 1995-1998 | 2000 | 1994-1998 | Now? | 1994-1995 | Demand | | | | | | ————————————————————————-
Television has altered the way we view the world. As the next millennium approaches, new technologies are altering the way we view television. Multibillion-dollar media mergers continue to grab headlines as companies race to combine the telephone, television, and computer into the ultimate window on the world. WIRED asked five experts in the field to predict when several of the technological concepts behind this convergence will become common and inexpensive enough to dramatically change how, and what, we communicate. - David Pescovitz
Video phones
Most everyone polled agrees that the price of video phones will have to drop significantly before people will be quickly primping when the phone rings. De Kerckhove is convinced that video phones will create a massive video-sex market and foresees a "short-lived but lively new fad, 'video streaking,' which will be to moon at a party via video conferencing."
Fiber to the Home
One of the most popular catch phrases of the 1990s refers to a non-necessity, according to Bringenberg, Welsh, and de Kerckhove. They consider fiber to the neighborhood or curb as a more viable and practical alternative. However, Britton thinks "the residential marketing of high-bandwidth T1 capabilities to homes will open the electronic frontier."
Flat-Rate Phone Service
Although this is a dream of anyone involved in a long-distance romance, Britton believes that "unless the system is nationalized, phone rates will never be flatter than they are right now." However, Bringenberg and Schrage see flat-rate phone service as just around the corner.
100-MIPS TV Set-Top Boxes
Although Britton considers powerful set-top boxes "the next generation of computing," de Kerckhove disagrees. "People aren't going to buy anything they have to think about using."
Movies On Demand
Welsh thinks "the key to customer acceptance is finding a price that's competitive to video stores and other distributors." Convenience and cost are obviously important considerations, as many consumers already know how to have their movie demands met. "It's called Blockbuster," Schrage says.
Reality Checkers
John Bringenberg is director of business development at Tele-Communications Inc.; Benjamin Britton is assistant professor of Fine Arts and Electronic Arts at the University of Cincinnati's College of Design, Art, Architecture and Planning; Derrick de Kerckhove is director of the McLuhan Program at the University of Toronto; Michael Schrage is an MIT Media Lab fellow and "Innovation" columnist for the Los Angeles Times; Maurice Welsh is director of new media market development at Pacific Bell.
ELECTRIC WORD
Reality Check
