Hype List
1. Human Genome
The human genome project has a lot in common with Kabbalah, the mystical tradition of finding meaning in random letter combinations. As in Kabbalah, a belief that incomprehensible systems can be productively manipulated and analyzed with simple tools is crucial. As one devout analyst put it, "We don't know what will come of this, but there are huge opportunities." The problem is that identifying genes is a very small part of the search for deeper understanding of human beings - and profitable products. Most diseases are polygenic, making them nearly impossible to treat even if the genes are known. If the hype continues, geneticists may experience the same backlash that has occurred with high-energy physics.
2. Alliances
A few years ago, CEOs were blaming the fall of the Soviet Union on a lack of market competition. Many of these same CEOs are now desperately forming alliances with every communications and computer company they can find. The promise of interactive technology has companies running scared. The fear is fostered by the hype surrounding interactive media, hype which says it is a US$500 billion market and that any company not involved is doomed to obsolescence. What is scary about the network of alliances is that competition will be stifled and we may end up standardizing on an over-priced, under-featured, boondoggle of a system.
Current Position Months Position Last Month on List Human Genome 1 - - Alliances 2 - - Video Conferencing 3 1 2 Set-top boxes 4 - 1 Modern Primitive 5 - 1
3. Video conferencing
The difficulty of initiating a meeting, of finding an agreeable time when everyone is available, has helped ensure that meetings do not become too frequent. But video conferencing has lowered the barrier, and the result, notes one Blue Cross executive and video conferencing victim, is more time spent in meetings than ever before. Furthermore, conventional meetings at least separated private time from group time. But with some of the new video conferencing systems, the camera on your desk is always live - anyone who wants to see if you are busy can just take a look. Expect to see innovative, and hilarious, ways to thwart and exploit this capability.
4. Set-top boxes
Everyone agrees set-top boxes are of crucial importance, but no one can seem to agree on what a set-top box actually is. This has not stopped scores of computer and technology companies from announcing plans to build the devices. The idea of computer companies such as Sun Microsystems building consumer electronics is comic; even among engineers, Sun is notorious for its ugly and difficult-to-use interface. After the computer companies have fallen on their faces, watch for the media conglomerates such as Time Warner to step in. The best technology companies can hope for is to be the lackeys of the right conglomerates.
5. Modern Primitive
If I see one more pierced nipple, or one more Celtic tattoo, I'm going to turn in my Gen X membership card and demand to return to an earlier time when body manipulation had a significance beyond signaling membership in a demographic group and as grist for advertisers. If fashion police did exist, surely gratuitous piercing, tattooing, and branding would be felonies with mandatory sentencing. Like bad plastic surgery, bad piercings make people look all the more ridiculous because of their obvious pride in their pierces. I'm going to put up a sign: "We thank you for not showing us your belly-button pierce."
- Steve G. Steinberg
