Hype List
1. Video conferencing
Video conferencing bears a terrifying promise: Distance will no longer be an excuse for not attending meetings. Desktop video conferencing transforms a typical dry meeting into an excruciating experience of droning, tinny voices and grainy shadows that flicker in and out of view. Only a masochist, or, as in 1984, someone of very low rank, wouldn't immediately click the window off. If you don't believe me, try sitting through one of the Internet Engineering meetings now being broadcast over the Net. Yet, industry analysts expect us to be terribly excited by the idea of desktop video conferencing. Just what kind of meetings do analysts go to anyhow?
2. Standards
After watching the ATM standard become accepted before it had even been tested, and then seeing the HDTV standard battle resolved by fiat, I theorized that the industry had learned that settling on a standard was more important than the quality of the standard. I was wrong. While the industry does now agree on standards before they are de facto, companies have a tendency to agree on multiple standards, or standards so broad as to be meaningless, thereby nullifying the intent of standardization. For example: The Ethernet standards committee was unable to come to consensus and so a schism occurred, producing two different official Ethernet committees. The consumer gains nothing, but now every company can claim to adhere to "the standard."
Current Position Months Position Last Month on List Video Conferencing 1 - 1 Standards 2 - 1 John Sculley 3 - 1 Green PCs 4 1 2 Video on demand 5 2 3
3. John Sculley
Just last year John Sculley was known as a marketing genius and a true economic hero; now he is routinely characterized as a bumbling fool who ruined Apple. In some ways this is Sculley's fault, not because he made any terrible errors, but because he was so successful with his hype that people began to believe Sculley really was a technological Prometheus. Sculley now says he is tired of "multimedia hype" - hype which he is largely responsible for - and it looks like he is tired of the hype surrounding his career as well. He has taken the first step in hype recovery: "My name is John, and I'm a capitalist. Not a revolutionary."
4. Green PCs
The EPA's Energy Star program couldn't be better for computer manufacturers: It's a nice selling point that requires a minimal investment. For one thing, no testing is done to ensure that products which are billed as Energy Star compliant truly are. This is partly because the EPA doesn't have the money, and partly because the Energy Star specifications are so vague that with a little creativity almost any computer could be considered compliant. But this is not to say that most vendors will cheat. Computer technology is going low power anyway due to technological limits on speed and heat dissipation. So, more than anything, Energy Star is just a way to brag about what you already have and an excuse for an extra sticker.
5.Video on demand
Although computer companies are relentlessly hyping video on demand, cable companies have been more muted in their enthusiasm, and for good reason. Video on demand requires a huge investment in equipment and is in many ways a zero-sum game for the cable companies: Much of the money earned from video on demand is money which previously would have been earned from HBO or other premium movie channels. And of course there's the content problem: How do you get the rights to movies people want to watch? The easy solution, buying a film company, would result in a few good movies and endless schlock-on-demand. This may be one new technology where the the hardware companies come out ahead.
