You've heard the Hype. We asked the Experts. Here's the real Timetable.
+——————————————————-+ | Markoff Caruso Norman Jacobson | |=======================================================| | Handwriting | 2000 1996 2008 2005 | | Recognition | | |——————————————————-| | Intelligent | 2015 1998 ? 2000 | | Agents | | |——————————————————-| | Interactive | Never 2000 2003 Never | | TV | | |——————————————————-| | Paperless | 2005 Never 2013 2005/50% | | Office | | |——————————————————-| | VR | 2020 Never Never Never | | Sunglasses | | |_______________________________________________________|
How we interact with computers is an area of intense research, but one that seems to give off more smoke than solutions. Part of the reason is that the interface problem is really, really hard: Humans are annoyingly imprecise and difficult to quantify. Wired asked four industry experts to predict when a few much-ballyhooed interface technologies would actually arrive. Of course there is a certain vagueness to such questions. But, for example, when we asked about intelligent agents, we meant intelligent agents powerful enough to change the way we work dramatically and common enough that most technically sophisticated people use them. Perhaps most surprising was how often the analysts didn't think the technologies would arrive at all.
Handwriting Recognition
Just about everyone seems to think this one will arrive soon, perhaps by the year 2002. Most agreed with John Markoff, that it will "fall to large dictionaries and fast processors." However, Bob Jacobson argued that it will be useful for only a small segment of the population.
Intelligent Agents
Intelligent agents, computer assistants that help us with our work, is the most eagerly awaited technology by the analysts we polled. "Next year wouldn't be too soon for me," said Denise Caruso, "but it will take a long time for the various infrastructure and network providers to make themselves 'agent friendly.'" Of course, "intelligent" is a slippery term. As Don Norman pointed out, "It's like all of AI: As the machines become more capable, we simply redefine our definition of intelligence."
Interactive TV
Most of our experts predicted that when interactive TV does arrive, it won't look much like TV. Bob Jacobson claims that "for those who want truly interactive media, other delivery vehicles will provide better and more fulfilling environments." Denise Caruso does believe that fully interactive TV will come about, but thinks that due to the complexity of the task, as well as new regulatory controls, it will arrive a lot later than cable companies would have us believe.
Paperless Office
John Markoff believes "it's inevitable, flat panel displays are on the same cost performance curve as other semiconductors. Resolution will surpass paper in the next five years." But many professed doubt that the paperless office will ever come about entirely. Jacobson thinks that we will reach only the 50 percent point by 2005. Yet, as Norman pointed out, this article you're reading was done entirely through e-mail without being on paper until the final product.
VR Sunglasses
No one ventured to predict this coming about soon; it seems they all had an immediate negative reaction to the initials "VR." As Don Norman put it: "Bah and humbug."
Reality Checkers: John Markoff, reporter, The New York Times; Denise Caruso, editorial director, Friday Holdings (former editor, Digital Media); Don Norman, interface researcher, Apple Computer; Robert Jacobson, VR researcher, Worldesign Inc.
ELECTRIC WORD
From Video Jock . . . . . . . to System Op
Reality Check
