We're as confused as the rest of you when it comes to this whole telephone/cable/ broadband-interactive-TV-into-your-home mess, so we decided to call up an expert - one with her own newsletter on the subject, no less. Here's what Charlotte Wolter, editor of Video Technology News (sister publication to Fiber Optic News and ISDN News), had to say:
Q: Okay Charlotte, you're the expert. What's happening with cable companies, telephone companies, and these new services we're all hearing about?
A: There is a tremendous amount of activity right now, and it falls into two areas. The telephone companies are trying to get into video, and the cable companies are trying to get into any business that can go down a wire. There has been an extraordinarily rapid technological watershed in fiber technology, video compression, and digital transmission in the past three years. The whole picture of what is possible has totally changed.
Q: So what is possible now?
A: Well, besides the regular 70 channels of analog TV you can now get from your cable service, the cable companies will probably provide several hundred digital channels, initially to consumers who are willing to pay for digital, but eventually to everyone. The ability to decode digital signals will be built into special cable TV boxes and even into TVs themselves. The first offerings will be niche channels - the Tulip Channel, for example - and interactive TV will come around a step afterward. Most of these cable services have reserved five or so channels for interactive, upstream data.
Q: Niche stations are fine, but c'mon, how are you going to fill 500 channels? How could anyone ever decide what to watch?
A: That's where the computer industry comes in. Cable companies are looking for anything that can be carried on their cables: home shopping, database services, maybe corporate video conferencing. It's open to whatever a creative mind can dream up. They are looking at the emerging field of personal communicators, and of course telephone service. As far as deciding what to watch, the computer industry will have a role in putting the interface on top of all of this.
Q: Does this leave the telephone companies and broadcasters out in the cold?
A: No. The broadcasters are considering the idea of putting multiple digital channels in their old broadcast slot when they change over to HDTV. And a couple of major telco executives have finally admitted that they are rethinking their (earlier) plans to wire fiber into every home. Instead, there are indications that they will partner with the cable companies, or simply buy them outright.
Q: But aren't there regulations about such purchases? Will the Clinton administration change any of this?
A: I don't know how the Clinton administration would feel about unfettered, take-the-gloves-off competition in this field. I think they'd want broadband democracy. But technology is changing so fast they might not want to shake up the status quo at the FCC at this point. The fact that they have yet to appoint a new chief at the FCC signals a little uncertainty. And standards, like the MPEG compression standard, have yet to be finalized. I think what we'll see is regulations that ensure everyone gets a slice of broadband services, not just those who can afford to.
Q: So really, when are we going to see broadband services to our home?
A: I just spoke to two companies - Time Warner and Cablevision - about this. They said that basically it would be a two-year time frame - that includes getting fiber in-stalled, starting digital transmission, and getting wide distribution of the decoder boxes into the home. That's faster than I expected.
Charlotte Wolter can be reached at +1-310-453-1231.
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